India's coal imports rise 4% to 161.43 MT in April-November 2019

The country's coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
This comes amid the Centre exuding hope that imports of the fossil fuel would be contained to 235 MT this financial year.

India had imported 154.56 MT of coal in April-November 2018, according to a report by mjunction services.
"On a progressive basis (April-November '19) (provisional), total coal...imports were recorded at 161.43 MT, a 4.45 per cent increase against 154.56 MT imported for the same period last year (April-November '18)," it said.
mjunction -- a joint venture between Tata Steel and SAIL -- is a B2B e-commerce company which also publishes research reports on coal and steel verticals.
Coal imports in November declined by marginal 0.8 per cent to 17.80 MT, against 17.95 MT in the same month last fiscal.
"The weak demand from the thermal power sector and an increase in seaborne prices, especially for the South African material, led to a slight drop in volumes during the month. With domestic production set to rise in the fourth quarter (January-March), import demand is expected to be subdued in coming months," mjunction MD and CEO Vinaya Varma said.
Recently, a top official at the coal ministry had said the coal position in the country was very comfortable.
The country produced 730.35 MT of coal in FY'19, while the imports were 235.24 MT.
India's coal imports stood at 208.2 MT in 2017-18 and 190.95 MT in 2016-17.

Growth of 8 core sector industries slows to 2.6% in April

The growth of eight core infrastructure sectors slowed down to 2.6 per cent in April, due to negative growth in crude oil, natural gas and fertiliser output.
During April 2018, the expansion rate of eight infrastructure sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity -- stood at 4.7 per cent.

Coal generation growth was flat at 2.8 pet cent in April 2019, said the government data.
The output of electricity and refinery products was 5.8 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively.
Crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizers sectors posted decline in growth during the month.
The infrastructure sector growth has impact on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) as these segments account for about 41 per cent of the total factory output.

Retail inflation rises marginally in April to 2.92% from 2.86% in March

India's retail inflation rate hit a six-month high in April, due to bigger increases in food prices, but remained below the Reserve Bank of India's target for a ninth month, keeping hopes alive for a June cut in the key interest rate.
Annual retail inflation in April was 2.92 per cent, up from the provisional 2.86% in the previous month, but slightly below analyst forecasts, government data showed on Monday, reported Reuters.

Pulses inflation stood at -0.89 per cent versus -2.25% (month on month), reported CNBC TV18. Cereals inflation was 1.17 per cent versus 1.25 per cent (MoM).
The inflation rate has fallen sharply from a peak of more than 12 per cent in November 2013, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has touted while seeking a second term in general elections that began on April 11. Votes will be counted on May 23.
While low inflation is helping the economy, declining farm incomes and record high unemployment have hit consumer demand and economic growth.
The economy likely grew an annual 6.5 per cent in January-March, according to government estimates, slower than five-quarter low growth of 6.6 per cent in October-December.
This year, the monetary policy committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its benchmark repo rate twice, reducing it to 6.0% and many economists expect another 25 basis point trim on June 6.
(With inputs from Reuters)

Factory growth rises by 4.9% in April, up from 5-month low of 4.4% in March

The country’s industrial output rose by 4.9 per cent in April, up from the 4.4 per cent growth seen in March due to a turnaround in capital goods production as well as an uptick in overall manufacturing growth.
Compared to this, growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had fallen to a five-month low of 4.6 per cent in March as manufacturing production growth halved from the month before and the capital goods segment saw contraction.
In April, growth in the major manufacturing segment - which constitutes the bulk of the index at 77.6 per cent - stood at 5.2 per cent, up from 4.6 per cent in March. Among the sub-sectors within manufacturing, seven recorded year-on-year contraction, down from 12 in March. Industries such as electronics, auto, pharma, food, metals, non-metallic products, etc. continued to do well.
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On the other hand, mining output rose by 5.1 per cent in April, in line with expectations as a sharp uptick in coal production had been seen during the month. But electricity generation registered a slower growth of 2.1 per cent, down from the more than double 5.9 per cent in March.
ALSO READ: IIP rises by 4.9% in April; retail inflation inches up to 4.87% in May
April also saw growth among all use-based classification groups, including the sensitive capital goods which returned to the growth charts with a 13 per cent rise. The capital goods segment within the IIP connotes investment and had contracted by 5.7 per cent in March.
Factory growth rises by 4.9% in April, up from 5-month low of 4.4% in March A sharp contraction in gold jewellery output, a possible fallout of the multi-billion-dollar Nirav Modi scam, might be continuing to contribute to the subdued growth in the consumer durables sector, which rose by 4.3 per cent after the 4.05 per cent rise in March, experts said. However, the largest sector - primary goods - continued to be plagued by low growth, rising 3 per cent after registering a 2.9 per cent rise in March. Yet, performance in both sectors has been helped by a low base effect, Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, said.
“With sustained spending on infra, especially by the government, and consumer demand continuing to pick up in the coming months, CARE expects IIP growth to be 5-6 per cent this year,” he added.

ALSO READ: Domestic macro data like IIP, CPI and global cues to drive market this week
“While output growth in 2018-19 is likely to be better than in 2017-18 due to expectation of a normal monsoon, robust vehicle sales, infrastructure focus, and sector-specific programmes such as housing for all, faster resolution of stressed assets in the banking sector, and limiting fiscal slippage will be key factors to watch,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings.
The infrastructure/construction goods sector continued to see high growth at 7.5 per cent in April, but it was still lower than the 8.9 per cent rise in March.
Factory growth rises by 4.9% in April, up from 5-month low of 4.4% in March

April trade deficit widens to $13.7 bn, exports grow 5.17% to $25.9 bn

India's trade deficit slightly widened to $13.72 billion in April from $13.25 billion a year ago, government data showed on Tuesday.
Merchandise exports for April rose 5.2 per cent from a year ago to $25.9 billion.

Goods imports last month were $39.6 billion, a gain of 4.6 percent from a year ago, data from the commerce and industry ministry showed.
The trade deficit for 2017/18 fiscal year ending in March grew to $156.8 billion from $105.72 billion in the previous year, mainly driven by a rising oil import bill - a growing concern for the central bank.

Q4 earnings preview: How key sectors of the economy may have performed

The results season for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year is about to begin in the second week of April. While the actual numbers are awaited, it will be interesting to see how these numbers could pan out sector-wise.
Here are four possibilities we see:

Banking Sector could face NPA pressure
Indian banks have already written off close to Rs 242,000 crore in the last 5 years and the pressure could be felt in this quarter too. Most of the stressed asset cases may call for higher provisioning in the fourth quarter and that is likely to hit PSU banks the most. Also, power sector NPAs may start seeing write-offs in this quarter. One can also look forward to more aggressive provisioning by the vulnerable private banks like ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Yes Bank which have had issues with the RBI on NPA under-reporting. Above all, the bond yields have gone up by 140 basis points in the last 7 months and that is likely to take a toll on the investment books of banks. Of course, banks can spread the loss across four quarters but the disclosure will be there in the notes. The pressure on PSU banks is likely to continue while select private banks may sustain previous growth rates.
Auto sector could be the fundamental outperformer this quarter
This quarter could see a sharp improvement in the profitability of four wheelers and two-wheelers. Overall auto will benefit from the lag effect of the compressed base due to demonetisation. With rural incomes coming back, we could see the impact in this quarter. Also, demand for all product categories has been robust and especially the turnaround in CV demand is good news for the auto companies. Maruti will reap the benefits of its dominance over the passenger car space while Tata Motors could benefit from domestic off-take and JLR demand.
IT industry could be in a sweet spot this quarter
One of the sectors that has outperformed the Nifty in the last 1 year is the IT index and not without reason. The sector had bottomed out a year back and we could see some robust growth in sales and profits in this quarter. Mid-tier IT companies are likely to post faster sequential growth and also better operating margins in this quarter. Additionally, the dollar weakening against the other hard currencies will mean that the cross currency tailwinds are likely to be positive for the IT sector overall. This could be the sector to watch and could positively surprise in this quarter.
Expect good tidings from the FMCG pack
This sector best represents the consumer pack and consumer demand. A rise in rural incomes, bigger cash dole outs to pensioners and armed forces will mean that there is going to be a huge boost for entry-level demand for FMCG products. Within the FMCG space, food products could be the big beneficiary benefiting from the very favourable GST cuts during the last quarter. Even though these cuts have been passed on to the end customer, the demand boost is likely to bring their top-line growth closer to the 5-6% mark, at least for the larger names.
At a more macro level this quarter will be critical in signalling a veritable corporate earnings recovery. The signs of the earnings normalizing in the aftermath of demonetisation were already visible last quarter and could get reinforced this quarter. The big boost could come from the rural economy due to a combination of farm loan waivers and higher government spending!