Covid-19 impact: IMF projects Indian economy to contract by 4.5% in FY21

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the Indian economy faces an even deeper downturn than what it had projected in April as the country grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic. It has projected a sharp contraction of 4.5 per cent in FY21, a steep drop from its April forecast of a 1.9 per cent expansion, calling it a "historic low" for India.
In fact, India faced the sharpest cut in the outlook — a 6.4-percentage point revision due to a more severe fallout of the pandemic than anticipated. In comparison, emerging markets (EMs) and developing countries saw a 2-percentage point reduction in outlook, while the global outlook was cut by 1.9 percentage points.
The silver lining, however, is that the country is expected to bounce back in FY22 with a 6 per cent growth rate, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook titled A Crisis like No Other, An Uncertain Outlook. However, it is lower than even the ASEAN-5 average of 6.2 per cent estimated for 2021 by the agency.
China is estimated to post 1 per cent growth in 2020 and revive to 8.2 per cent in 2021, retaining the fastest-growing economy tag for the third straight year.
“We are projecting a sharp contraction of 4.5 per cent. Given the unprecedented nature of this crisis, as is the case for almost all countries, this projected contraction is a historic low,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said after releasing the WEO update. According to the IMF’s record, this is the lowest ever for India since 1961.
However, according to the back-series data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), taking 2011-12 as base, the economy shrunk by 5.2 per cent in 1979-80.
The Indian economy grew by 4.2 per cent in 2019-20. The global output is seen shrinking 4.9 per cent, and EMs by 3 per cent. “For the first time, all regions are projected to experience negative growth in 2020,” said the IMF.
“The Covid-19 pandemic pushed economies into a Great Lockdown, which helped contain the virus and save lives, but also triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression,” Gopinath said.
ALSO READ: IMF projects global economy to shrink by 4.9% this year over Covid-19
With the updated forecast, the IMF joins other international agencies in projecting negative growth for India in the current fiscal. Last week, the Asian Development Bank also scaled down India’s growth forecast to -4 per cent from a 4 per cent expansion. The IMF’s WEO said that in 2021, global economy was projected to grow at 5.4 per cent. “The pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020, with recovery projected to be more gradual than expected,” said the IMF. It further pointed out that economies struggling to control infection rates would see lengthier lockdowns, inflicting additional toll on economic activity.
“Over 75 per cent of countries are now reopening at the same time as the pandemic is intensifying in many emerging markets and developing economies. Several countries have started to recover. However, in the absence of a medical solution, the strength of the recovery is highly uncertain and the impact on sectors and countries uneven," added Gopinath.

chart
It, however, cautioned that similar to April 2020’s WEO projections, there was pervasive uncertainty around this forecast. “The forecast depends on the depth of the contraction in the second quarter of 2020 (for which complete data are not yet available) as well as the magnitude and persistence of the adverse shock.”
With lockdowns in different countries now easing, the IMF said fiscal policies would have to balance the need to protect people, stabilise demand, and facilitate recovery. It emphasised public investment to accelerate recovery and expanded social safety net spending to protect the most vulnerable.
ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: With 3,788 fresh cases, Delhi's tally crosses 70,000-mark
“India has unveiled liquidity support (4.5 per cent of GDP) through loans and guarantees for businesses and farmers, and equity injections into financial institutions and electricity sector,” the report mentioned.
It said that where the fiscal space was limited, countries needed to reorient revenue and spending to increase and incentivise productive investment.
“Making some provisions (for example, relaxing eligibility) of social protection programmes to be more long-lasting, could enhance automatic stabilisers and help tackle rising poverty and inequality. All measures should be embedded in a medium-term fiscal framework and transparently managed and recorded to mitigate fiscal risks, including loans and guarantees that do not have an immediate effect on government debt and deficits,” it said.
It warned that global public debt could reach an all-time high, exceeding 101 per cent of GDP in FY21 — a surge of 19 percentage points from a last year.
According to reports, several economists have projected India’s debt-to-GDP-ratio to increase to as high as 90 per cent in FY21, from the 70 per cent at present. The IMF said countries with elevated debt levels could constrain the scope of further fiscal support, poising an important medium-term challenge.
“To ensure that economies are well prepared to counter further shocks, policymakers should consider strengthening mechanisms for automatic, timely, and temporary support in downturns,” it said.

Indian growth slowdown temporary, expect momentum to improve: IMF chief

IMFchief Kristalina Georgieva on Friday said growth slowdown in India appears to be temporary and that she expects the momentum to improve going ahead.
The world appears a better place in January 2020 compared to what it was when IMF announced its World Economic Outlook in October 2019, she said at the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2020 here.

She said the factors driving this positive momentum include receding trade tension after the US-China first phase trade deal and synchronised tax cuts, among others.
She, however, said 3.3 per cent is not a fantastic growth rate for the world economy.
"It is still sluggish growth. We want fiscal policies to be more aggressive and we want structural reforms and more dynamism," the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
On Monday, the fund lowered growth estimate for the world economy to 2.9 per cent for 2019, citing "negative surprises" in few emerging market economies, especially India.
The IMF also revised downwards its forecast for India to 4.8 per cent for 2019-20.
Regarding emerging markets, Georgieva on Friday said they are also moving forward.
"We had a downgrade in one large market India but we believe that's temporary. We expect momentum to improve further going ahead. There are also some bright spots like Indonesia and Vietnam," she noted.
According to Georgieva, a number of African countries are doing very well, but some other nations like Mexico are not.
On risks ahead for the global economy, the IMF chief listed factors like weakness in long-term productivity growth and low inflation.
"We are living in a more risk-prone world. It is only January and there have been events that are sparking risks for the global economy," she added.
Releasing an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on Monday, the IMF had said global growth, estimated at 2.9 per cent in 2019, is projected to increase to 3.3 per cent in 2020 and inch up further to 3.4 per cent in 2021.
Compared to the October WEO forecast, the estimate for 2019 and the projection for 2020 represent 0.1 percentage point reductions for each year while that for 2021 is 0.2 percentage point lower.
"A more subdued growth forecast for India... accounts for the lion's share of the downward revisions," it had said.

IMF blames India for global slowdown, lowers 2019 growth forecast to 4.8%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered India’s economic growth forecast to 4.8 per cent for this fiscal year owing to the crisis in the non-banking financial sector and weak rural demand. It also cut the world’s growth estimate and blamed the slowdown in India for its move.
The IMF projection, 1.3 percentage points lower than its earlier estimates, is less than the 5 per cent projected by the official advance estimates. The IMF projected India’s economy to grow by 5.8 per cent next year, which is 1.2 percentage points less than its earlier forecast. It also forecast the economy to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2021-22 which is 0.9 percentage point lower than earlier projections.

The IMF estimated world economic growth at 1.9 per cent for 2019, 0.1 percentage point lower than its earlier forecast. Similarly, it projected the global economy to grow by 3.3 per cent in the current calendar year, 0.1 percentage point lower than its previous estimates, and 3.4 per cent in 2022, 0.2 percentage points below its earlier estimates.
“The downward revision primarily reflects negative surprises to economic activity in a few emerging market economies, notably India, which led to a reassessment of growth prospects over the next two years,” the IMF said ahead of the start of the World Economic Forum annual summit in Davos.

chart
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in a blogpost that the biggest contributor to the revision of global economic growth was India, where growth slowed sharply owing to stress in the non-banking financial sector and weak rural income growth. She, however, said growth momentum should improve next year due to factors like positive impact of corporation tax rate reduction.
She said the pick-up in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran, and Turkey, and for under-performing emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India, and Mexico.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the reality is global growth remains sluggish even as she mentioned that monetary easing has helped to stabilise the global economy, adding roughly 0.5 per cent to global growth. However, she said that a more comprehensive solution would be needed if global growth slows again. “A coordinated fiscal response can boost growth,” she said while calling for a “spirit of cooperation”.

Slowdown impact: IMF lowers India growth estimate to 4.8% for 2019

The IMFon Monday lowered India's economic growth estimate for the current fiscal to 4.8 per cent and listed the country's much lower-than-expected GDP numbers as the single biggest drag on its global growth forecast for two years.
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had pegged India economic growth at 6.1 per cent for 2019.

Listing decline in rural demand growth and an overall credit sluggishness for lowering of India forecasts, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath however said the growth momentum should improve next year due to factors like positive impact of corporate tax rate reduction.
"Global growth, estimated at 2.9 per cent in 2019, is projected to increase to 3.3 per cent in 2020 and inch up further to 3.4 per cent in 2021," the IMF said while releasing an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO).
Compared to the October WEO forecast, the estimate for 2019 and the projection for 2020 represent 0.1 percentage point reductions for each year while that for 2021 is 0.2 percentage point lower.
"A more subdued growth forecast for India... accounts for the lion's share of the downward revisions," the IMF said ahead of the start of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual summit here.
India-born IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said growth in India slowed sharply owing to stress in the non-bank financial sector and weak rural income growth.
The country's growth is estimated at 4.8 per cent in 2019, projected to improve to 5.8 per cent in 2020 and 6.5 percent in 2021 (1.2 and 0.9 percentage point lower than in the October WEO), supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus as well as subdued oil prices, it added.
2019 refers to fiscal year 2019-20.
India's economy grew just 4.5 per cent in July-September 2019 period --- the weakest pace in nearly six years. The Indian government has been taking various measures to bolster growth.
For the emerging market and developing economy group, the IMF said growth is expected to increase to 4.4 per cent in 2020 and 4.6 per cent in 2021 (0.2 percentage point lower for both years than in the October WEO) from an estimated 3.7 per cent in 2019.
"The growth profile for the group reflects a combination of projected recovery from deep downturns for stressed and underperforming emerging market economies and an ongoing structural slowdown in China," it noted.
Gopinath also said the pickup in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran and Turkey, and for underperforming emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India and Mexico.
Further, the IMF said the balance of risks to the global outlook remains on the downside, but less skewed toward adverse outcomes than in the October WEO.

IMF cautions India against fiscal stimulus, says govt should go for reforms

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned India against giving a fiscal stimulus because the government has a wiggle-room to do so. It said the government was anyway likely to miss the fiscal deficit target given in the Budget for 2019-20 owing to ambitious revenue projections and the recent cuts in corporation tax rates.
It has estimated the Centre’s fiscal deficit to widen to 3.7 per cent of GDP in FY20 and 3.8 per cent next fiscal year, against the projection of 3.3 per cent and 3 per cent given in the Budget papers. It wanted the government to undertake reform measures and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to give a monetary stimulus to spur the sagging economy.

“Addressing cyclical weakness should focus on monetary policy and broad-based macro-structural reforms. Fiscal stimulus should be avoided given limited policy space,” the IMF said in the country report on India, released on Tuesday under its Article IV. The IMF’s suggestion came amid industry lobbying with the government to provide it a fiscal stimulus. The IMF said the Union Budget for 2019-20 envisaged a small reduction in the fiscal deficit but the overly optimistic revenue targets and the recent reduction in corporation rates made achieving the Budget targets increasingly unlikely.
The Budget projected the Centre’s fiscal deficit to come down to 3.3 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019-20 against 3.4 per cent a year ago. In absolute terms, the Budget targeted the deficit to come down to Rs 7.03 trillion in the current fiscal year from Rs 6.34 trillion a year ago. The deficit has crossed this target by over 2 per cent by October itself.
The IMF said in the near term, given the cyclical weakness in the economy, monetary policy should maintain an easing bias at least until the projected recovery took hold.
The monetary policy committee of the RBI has cut the repo rate by 1.60 percentage points in the current fiscal year, but refrained from doing so in its December policy review.
The IMF said with its strong mandate the Narendra Modi government had an opportunity to reinvigorate the reform agenda aimed at boosting inclusive and sustainable growth.
“A comprehensive reform package is needed to guide the economy on a path to the government’s goal of a $5-trillion economy in five years,” it said. It said a credible fiscal consolidation path is needed for the medium term to reduce debt, free up financial resources for private investment, and reduce the interest bill.
IMF cautions India against fiscal stimulus, says govt should go for reformsTo support the adoption of a necessary medium-term fiscal consolidation, driven by subsidy-spending rationalisation and tax-base enhancing measures, revenue projections should be more realistic and fiscal transparency and budget coverage should be enhanced, it said. The governance of public sector banks and the efficiency of their credit allocation needs strengthening, and the public sector’s role in the financial system needs to be reduced.
Labour, land, and product market reforms aimed at enhancing competition and governance, along with infrastructure investment, should be priorities to create more and better jobs for India’s rapidly-growing labour force and enhance female labour force participation, the IMF said. The Fund said fiscal consolidation needs to be anchored by a gradual reduction of subsidy spending on food, fuel, and fertilisers, the need for which is lessened by increased economically-less-distortionary direct-benefit-transfers to farmers, including through PM KISAN.
It also focused on increase in revenue collections through reforms on GST. It recommended increasing compliance by streamlining filing and refund mechanisms, broadening the base by including electricity and petroleum products, and simplifying the rate structure—adopting fewer rates.

Important for India to keep fiscal deficit in check: IMF's Gita Gopinath

It is important for India to keep fiscal deficit in check, even though its revenue projections look optimistic, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Gita Gopinath has said.
As against India's real growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2018, the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, projected the country's growth rate at 6.1 per cent in 2019 and noted that the Indian economy is expected to pick up at 7 per cent in 2020.

In India's case, there has been a negative impact on growth that has come from financial vulnerabilities and the nonbank financial sector, and the impact on consumer borrowing and borrowing of small and medium enterprises, Gopinath said.
The prominent Indian-American economist was speaking to reporters ahead of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank.
On the projections in the World Economic Outlook report, Gopinath said appropriate steps have been taken.
Appreciative of the recent steps being taken by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to address the economic challenges being faced by India, she said there is still a lot more that needs to be done.
Prominent among these include cleaning up of balance sheets of regular commercial banks, Gopinath said.
In our projections we have that India will recover to 7 per cent growth in 2020. And the premise is that these particular bottlenecks will clear up, she said.
On the fiscal side for India, there have been some recent measures, including the corporate tax cut. There has not been an announcement about how that will be offset to revenues at this point, Gopinath said.
It looks optimistic, the revenue projections going forward. But it is important for India to keep the fiscal deficit in check, she said.
Responding to a question, Deputy Director in the IMF Research Department Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti said the overall growth remains very strong in India by the standards of the world economy.
Even though it's lower than the very high standards at which the world was accustomed to looking at India, he said.
India's growth rate above 6 per cent is still notable and extremely important in a country that has such a large population. We have a forecast for further pick up the next year, also helped by tax cuts on the corporate trunk, Milesi-Ferretti said.
At the same time, there are many macroeconomic challenges the deputy director said as he emphasized the need to keep fiscal deficit under control.
Of course, India and Pakistan are not immune to global geopolitical tensions and to trade tensions that can take a toll on their manufacturing activity and demand for their exports, said the IMF official when asked about the economic impact of India- Pakistan tensions.

India's economic growth rate 'much weaker' than expected, says IMF

India's economic growth is "much weaker" than expected, according to the IMF, which attributed it to the corporate and environmental regulatory uncertainty and lingering weaknesses in some non-bank financial companies.
India's GDP growth rate slipped to 5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019-20, the lowest in over six years, according to latest official data.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July projected a slower growth rate for India in 2019 and 2020, a downward revision of 0.3 per cent for both the years, saying its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will now grow respectively at the rate of 7 per cent and 7.2 per cent, reflecting a weaker-than expected outlook for domestic demand.
However, India will still be the fastest growing major economy of the world and much ahead of China, the Washington-based global financial institution had said.
India's economic growth rate 'much weaker' than expected, says IMF
"We will have a fresh set of numbers coming up but the recent economic growth in India is much weaker than expected, mainly due to corporate and environmental regulatory uncertainty and lingering weakness in some non-bank financial companies," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters at a news conference here on Thursday.
The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, he said.
Responding to a question on the recent GDP figures of India, Rice said the IMF will monitor the economic situation in the country.
Sharp deceleration in manufacturing output and subdued farm sector activity pulled down India's GDP growth to over six-year low of 5 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2019-20, according to official data released last month.
The previous low in GDP growth was recorded at 4.3 per cent in January-March quarter of 2012-13. India's economic growth stood at 8 per cent in the same quarter of 2018-19.
"The GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 35.85 lakh crore, as against Rs 34.14 lakh crore in Q1 of 2018-19, showing a growth rate of 5 per cent," the National Statistical Office (NSO) said in a statement.
"We will update that assessment in the upcoming world economic outlook," IMF spokesman said.

IMF scales down India's GDP growth rate by 0.3% each for FY20 and FY21

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its projection for India’s economic growth by 0.3 percentage point to 7 per cent for 2019-20 due to subdued domestic demand. For the next financial year, the projection was also cut by 0.3 percentage point to 7.2 per cent.
“India’s economy is set to grow at 7.0 percent in 2019, picking up to 7.2 percent in 2020. The downward revision of 0.3 percentage point for both years reflects a weaker-than expected outlook for domestic demand,” IMF said in its update on its flagship report -- the World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

IMF did not give details of muted domestic demand, but various sectors of the economy have been witnessing a slowdown, particularly auto. For instance, retail vehicle sales across the country fell by 5.4 per cent in June year-on-year to 1.64 million units, according to data by the industry body – the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA).
The seven per cent GDP growth forecast for the current financial year is in line with the finance ministry’s projection.
It should also be noted that the earlier 7.3 per cent projection was made by IMF in April when the second advance estimates had pegged India’s economic growth rate to 7 per cent. However, now the growth rate had come down to 6.8 per cent which has been factored into by IMF. This means that even the lower GDP growth would not give push to the economic expansion this financial year.
With this only the World Bank has remained the outlier in terms of its projections for economic growth in India. It had projected India’s GDP growth rate at 7.5 per cent for the next three financial year, including the current one.
Even then, India will continue to be the fastest growing large economy in the world. The closest competitor, in terms of growth – China was projected to grow by 6.2 per cent in 2019 and 6 per cent in 2020 by IMF. Projections for the both the years were cut by 0.1 percentage points from earlier estimates. China grew 6.6 per cent in 2018.
Increase of India’s GDP growth to 7.2 per cent in 2020-21 would make the economy expand at the same rate as was witnessed in 2017-18. This means it would take three years for the economy to come back to just 7.2 per cent growth.
The Fund also scaled down the global growth rate by 0.1 percentage point each to 3.2 per cent in 2019 and 3.5 per cent in 2020.
It said, ”Global growth remains subdued. Since the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the United States further increased tariffs on certain Chinese imports and China retaliated by raising tariffs on a subset of US imports. Additional escalation was averted following the June G20 summit.”
Global technology supply chains were threatened by the prospect of US sanctions, Brexit related uncertainty and continued, and rising geopolitical tensions roiled energy prices, IMF said.
IMF noted that a number of central banks, including RBI, have turned dovish or communicated a more cautious view on the outlook. Earlier in June, RBI had cut the repo rate by 25 basis points for the third time in a row.
The Fund said investors now anticipate more significant policy easing from central banks, including in the United States. This supportive environment has helped markets regain their poise. Global share prices have recovered much of the ground lost in May, and market interest rates have continued to decline across a wide swath of economies, it added.

IMF scales down India's growth projection for current fiscal to 7.3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has moderately scaled down India's economic growth projection to 7.3 per cent for the current financial year from its earlier forecast of 7.4 per cent, while suggesting that the country should continue to undertake economic reforms, including a hire and fire policy to generate jobs. The new growth projection is a bit more optimistic than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI), but moderately pessimistic than that of the World Bank.
In its World Economic Outlook (WEO), a flagship publication brought out during the annual spring meetings of IMF and World Bank in Washington, the Fund also revised down its prediction for the country's economic growth to 7.5 per cent from an earlier 7.7 per cent for the next financial year.

For 2018-19, the multi-lateral institution pegged the economic growth at 7.1 per cent -- a shade higher than the official projection of 7 per cent in the second advance estimates. In either case, the growth for that year would be the lowest during the five-year tenure of the Modi government.

However, even then the country will remain the fastest growing large economy as the growth of its nearest competitor, China, is pegged at 6.6 per cent, 6.3 per cent and 6.1 per cent for 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. China's growth for 2019 and 2020 was cut by 0.1 percentage point each.
The downward projections for India are more to do with the revision of growth numbers by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) than an economic slowdown.
"In India, growth is projected to pick up to 7.3 per cent in 2019 and 7.5 per cent in 2020, supported by the continued recovery of investment and robust consumption amid a more expansionary stance of monetary policy and some expected impetus from fiscal policy," IMF said in WEO, titled "Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery."
It added,"Nevertheless, reflecting the recent revision to the national account statistics that indicated somewhat softer underlying momentum, growth forecasts have been revised downward compared with the October 2018 WEO by 0.1 percentage point for 2019 (2018-19) and 0.2 percentage point for 2020 (2020-21), respectively."
MoSPI had revised the country's economic growth projections on January 31 this year, scaling up growth projections for some years such as demonetisation year of 2016-17 and 2017-18. Due to revisions, economic growth for 2018-19 was also projected to slow down to 7 per cent in 2018-19 in the second advance estimates.
The hopes of India to grow by eight per cent in any near future could be dashed if IMF's projections come true. IMF said growth in India is expected to stabilise at just under 7.75 per cent over the medium term, based on continued implementation of structural reforms and easing of infrastructure bottlenecks.
The Fund said continued implementation of structural and financial sector reforms with efforts to reduce public debt remain essential to secure the economy’s
growth prospects.
In the near term, continued fiscal consolidation is needed to bring down India’s elevated public debt. "This should be supported by strengthening goods and services tax compliance and further reducing subsidies. Important steps have been taken to strengthen financial sector balance sheets, including through accelerated resolution of nonperforming assets under a simplified bankruptcy framework," it said.
These efforts should be reinforced by enhancing governance of public sector banks.
Reforms to hiring and dismissal regulations would help incentivise job creation and absorb the country’s large demographic dividend; efforts should also be enhanced on land reform to facilitate and expedite infrastructure development, it added.
India's growth rates were revised downward at a time when IMF scaled down the global economic growth to 3.3 per cent in 2019, down from 3.7 per cent, forecast earlier. Similarly, the growth rate for 2020 was revised down to 3.6 per cent from earlier 3.7 per cent. End

India needs more reforms to remain the fastest-growing large economy: IMF

India has been one of the fastest growing large economies in the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said, asserting that the country has carried out several key reforms in the last five years, but more needs to be done.
Responding to a question on India's economic development in the last five years at a fortnightly news conference here, IMF communications director Gerry Rice Thursday said, "India has of course been one of the world's fastest growing large economies of late, with growth averaging about seven per cent over the past five years."
"Important reforms have been implemented and we feel more reforms are needed to sustain this high growth, including to harness the demographic dividend opportunity, which India has," he said.

Details about the Indian economy would be revealed in the upcoming World Economic Outlook (WEO) survey report to be released by the IMF ahead of the annual spring meeting with the World Bank next month, he said.
This report would be the first under Indian American economist Gita Gopinath, who is now IMF's chief economist.
"The WEO will go into more details. But amongst the policy priorities, we would include accelerate the cleanup of banks and corporate balance sheets, continue fiscal consolidation, both at centre and state levels, and broadly maintain the reform momentum in terms of structural reforms in factor markets, labour, land reforms and further enhancing the business climate to achieve faster and more inclusive growth," Rice said.

Statsguru: World economy to maintain its growth momentum, says IMF

The world economy is expected to maintain its growth momentum in the coming years, says the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook.
As shown in Chart 1, the world economy is projected to grow at 3.9 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, up from 3.7 per cent in 2017. Growth is likely to be driven by emerging markets and developing economies, with the IMF noting that the rate of expansion in economic activity appears to have peaked in some major economies.

As shown in Chart 2, emerging economies are expected to grow at 4.9 per cent in 2018, up from 4.7 per cent in 2017. For 2019, the Fund projects growth of 5.1 per cent. By comparison, economic activity in advanced economies is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2019 from 2.4 per cent in 2018.
As seen in Chart 3, the US economy is expected to grow at 2.9 per cent in 2018, up from 2.4 per cent in 2017. However, growth is expected to slow to 2.7 per cent in 2019. In the euro region, growth is likely to have peaked in 2017 at 2.3 per cent.
For India, the IMF has lowered its earlier forecast for FY19 by 0.1 percentage point to 7.3 per cent on account of higher oil prices and tighter monetary policy. It has also lowered its FY20 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 7.5 per cent (Chart 4).
The Fund also notes recent tariff hikes by the US and the retaliatory measures thereafter have increased the likelihood of escalating trade actions.
As seen in Chart 5, it has lowered its forecast for world trade growth from 5.1 per cent in 2017 to 4.8 per cent in 2018 and further to 4.5 per cent in 2019.
The sharp rise in oil prices (Chart 6) has lifted headline inflation in both advanced and emerging economies.
As shown in Chart 7, inflation in emerging economies is projected at 4.4 per cent in 2018, up from 4 per cent in 2017, while for advanced economies, it is likely to rise to 2.2 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent.
StatsGuru is a weekly feature. Every Monday, Business Standard guides you through the numbers you need to know to make sense of the headlines; Source: World Economic Outlook, July 2018, International Monetary Fund