Showing posts with label Indian economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian economy. Show all posts

Saturday, 15 December 2018

Need to focus on reducing public debt in next 4-5 years: DEA Secretary Garg

The Indian economy has a large overhang of public debt and there is a need to focus on reducing this in the next 4-5 years, Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said Saturday.
Pointing out that fiscal deficit is moving towards the ideal level of 3 per cent of GDP and inflation is moderate, Garg also said India's macroeconomic parameters are among the best globally.

"Whether you look at the fiscal deficit, or you look at the inflation management or reserves...Fiscal deficit we are very close to now coming to 3 per cent level considered ideal.
ALSO READ: Icra places long-term rating of AAA for PFC, REC debt plans under watch
"We still have an overhang of a very large public debt...maybe in next 4-5 years that is the area where we will need to focus," Garg said at the FICCI Annual General Meeting here.
Rating agencies have raised concerns over the level of public debt and refrained from upgrading the sovereign rating of the country.
"Most credit rating agencies give a lot of weightage to the debt to GDP ratio of country, we focused more on the fiscal deficit presently. But going forward, that is the area where we will focus," he said.
On inflation, he said, "I think we have more or less conquered, I wouldn't say things may not go wrong, can go wrong sometimes, there are certain external factors like oil... which are not completely in our control. But I think we are reasonably assured that the inflation is less of a worry."
Headline inflation fell to a 17-month low of 2.33 per cent in November, primarily due to a favourable base effect and fall in prices of vegetables and cereals.
ALSO READ: Indian companies want RBI to dilute notice banning debt recast
Garg also said India can become a $10 trillion economy by 2030 if some of the concerns are addressed.
"We can build a new economy whether you talk about 2025, 2022, 2030, a $10 trillion economy by 2030 or $5 trillion by 2025, all these are feasible, we can achieve it if we pay attention to all these major traits," he said.
He exhorted the industry to invest in the infrastructure sector where there is huge deficit.
Infrastructure is an area where more funds are needed and it also provides an investment opportunity for businesses, he said.
Speaking about Friday's board meeting of the Reserve Bank of India, Garg said the board discussed governance, liquidity and other important issues.
All these issues would be examined and discussion will take place between the Reserve Bank and the government, he said, adding that there is no agenda for the next board meeting as of now.
ALSO READ: FPIs invested Rs 109.25 bn in equity, debt in November: Subhash Garg
Asked if there was any discussion on interim dividend, he replied in the negative.
Addressing the event, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Secretary Ramesh Abhishek said the government will soon unveil a new industrial policy.

Friday, 17 August 2018

Indian economy grew in double digits twice under UPA govt, says panel

The Indian economy grew in double digits twice during the tenure of the Manmohan Singh government (2004-14), shows the back-dated data on the new series of gross domestic product (GDP) given by a panel on real sector statistics.
The data showed that GDP grew by 10.23 per cent in 2007-08 and 10.78 per cent in 2010-11 against the earlier numbers of 9.32 per cent and 8.91 per cent, respectively.
The new series has 2011-12 as the base year and the earlier series 2004-05 and 1993-94.
However, there are some years for which the new figures show deceleration in growth. For example, growth stood at 4.15 per cent, according to the new numbers, against the earlier 6.72 per cent in 2008-09, when the global financial meltdown had ripple effects on India.
Officials of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), which released the report, said the data provided by the panel was “indicative” and the National Accounts would work out the final numbers based on these figures in three-four weeks.
The back series data is now tentatively available for GDP going back to 1994-95, to be in line with the new series from 2011-12 onwards.
Indian economy grew in double digits twice under UPA govt, says panel
The committee on real sector statistics is headed by Sudipto Mundle, who is former acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission and member of the Fourteenth Finance Commission.
The panel used two methods to generate GDP back-series.
“One approach is broadly based on the new GDP methodology by using the base data wherever available (such as MCA-21 data, which is available from 2007-08). Another method is based on production shift approach,” the report states.
N R Bhanumurthy of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, who is a member of the committee, said: “We have taken the available base data and then back-calculated. We have taken the difference between old series and new series and then sliced it backwards.”
Former chief statistician Pronab Sen said the differences between earlier estimates of GDP growth and the new back series were on expected lines. The new numbers show higher growth for 2004-05 to 2007-08 than the older series, which was expected, he said.
The bigger slowdown during the global financial crisis was also expected, he said. He attributed the differences primarily to the way services sector numbers are calculated. Now, these are based on MCA-21, a portal where companies file statutory returns online.
Some of the differences between GDP growth estimated earlier and now are because expansion is calculated at market prices under the new series, which largely includes indirect taxes. Earlier, growth was calculated at factor cost, which excludes indirect taxes.
To avoid this confusion, the back-series data also gave numbers at factor cost, using the new methodology and back series data at market prices.
Economists say ideally market prices should be compared with market prices and factor cost with factor cost.
Mundle said that was why back-dated and new series numbers were given at both market prices and factor cost.
Read our full coverage on GDP

Wednesday, 28 February 2018

India's Q3FY18 GDP growth rises to five-quarter high of 7.2%

The Indian economy grew at five-quarter high of 7.2% in the October-December period reflecting overall recovery due to good show by agriculture, manufacturing, construction and certain services.
The economy is expected to grow at 6.6% in the current fiscal ending March 31, as per the second advanced estimates of the Central Statistics Office (CSO), compared to 7.1% in 2016-17.
The earlier estimate was 6.5%.
The growth for the second quarter (July-September) has been revised upwards to 6.5%, from 6.3% estimated earlier by the CSO.
The previous high was recorded at 7.5% in the July-September quarter of 2016-17.
The CSO said that the real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in 2017-18 is likely to be Rs 130.04 lakh crore, as against the first revised estimate for 2016-17 of Rs 121.96 lakh crore, released on January 31.
The growth in GDP during 2017-18 is estimated at 6.6% as compared to the growth rate of 7.1 percent in 2016-17, it added.
The gross valued added (GVA) for manufacturing in the quarter under review grew at 8.9% higher than 6.9% in the previous quarter.
Similarly, the farm sector GVA grew at 4.1% compared to 2.7% in the previous quarter. The construction sector recorded a growth of 6.8%, higher than 2.8% in previous quarter.
The services segment including financial services grew at rate of 6.7% up from 6.4% in previous quarter.
ALSO READ
FY18 GVA growth likely to be 6.7%, gradual recovery on cards: Nomura
GDP growth hits 3-year low of 5.7%, slowest under Modi govt
HDFC Bank pegs GDP growth at 7.3% in FY19 on rural push, consumption surge
FY17 GDP growth retained at 7.1% and GVA growth revised sharply to 7.1%
Cash ban, GST to cool GDP growth to 4-year low at 6.7%, shows poll

"All three sectors - agriculture, industry and services - have accelerated in the third quarter. "Importantly GST disruption is seen waning as borne out by manufacturing sector growth at 8.1% in October-December vs 6.2% in July-September. Construction, government services and agriculture have led the growth in the December quarter. Broadly, the numbers are in line with our estimation for full year GDP at 6.7%. We have added the risk of a rate hike sometime between June to August 2018 following the recent monetary policy minutes, hinging on the inflation trajectory, and the GDP numbers reinstate our views," said Shubhada Rao, chief economist, YES Bank.
"Settling down of GST reforms will boost growth in FY 19. RBI has to balance between growth and inflation.
The recently released minutes of the MPC's last policy meeting showed growing concerns of embers over continued inflationary risks arising from high food and crude prices. High bad loans and reported fraud in the banking system have already happened. Right measures to eradicate such incidences in future and finding NPA resolution is the path ahead. There are concerns of rising fiscal deficit and possibility of interest rates rising further. While all other things seem to be in place, paucity of rainfall can be major risk in next one year. Creating jobs for the younger generation will lead to annual growth rate above 8%," said Anita Gandhi, whole time director, Arihant Capital Markets.