Retail inflation rises sharply to 7.35% in Dec 2019 from 5.54% in Nov

Retailinflation rose to about five-and-half year high of 7.35 per cent in December 2019, surpassing the RBI's comfort level, mainly due to spiralling prices of vegetables as onions were selling costlier.
The unexpected jump in inflation diminished the chances of the RBI cutting interest rate at its next monetary policy review due in early February.

As per the data released by National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday, the spike in inflation in the vegetable segment was 60.5 per cent during the month compared to December 2018.
The overall retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.11 per cent in December 2018 and 5.54 per cent in November 2019.
As per the NSO data, the overall food inflation rose to 14.12 per cent in December as against (-) 2.65 per cent in the same month of 2018. The food inflation was 10.01 per cent in November 2019.
The previous high in retail inflation was witnessed at 7.39 per cent in July 2014, the year Narendra Modi-led government assumed office for the first term.
The inflation in 'pulses and products' was recorded at 15.44 per cent, while in case of 'meat and fish' it was nearly 10 per cent.
The central government has mandated the Reserve Bank of India to keep inflation in the range of 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on the either side.
The RBI, which mainly factors in the CPI based inflation, is scheduled to announce its next bi-monthly monetary policy on February 6. In its December policy, the central bank, which has been reducing rates, had kept the repo rate unchanged citing inflationary concerns.
Icra principal economist Aditi Nayar said the revision in rail fares, uptick in prices of some categories of automobiles and an unfavourable base effect may contribute to a further uptick in the core inflation to around 4 per cent in the ongoing month.
"Even though we expect the headline CPI inflation to correct sharply in January 2020 and further in February 2020, from the unpalatably high 7.35 per cent recorded in December 2019, it is expected to remain sticky above 4.3 per cent in the next few quarters," she said.
Moreover, the concerns surrounding a higher core inflation trajectory are likely to be adequate for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to remain on hold in its February 2020 policy review, along with a possible change in stance from accommodative to neutral, she added.
With the CPI inflation breaching the RBI MPC's target of 6 per cent for the first time in the last 41 months, there is little scope for the committee to continue with monetary policy easing at least in the short term, M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Advisor, Brickwork Ratings said.
Commenting on the latest number, industry body PHD Chamber said the rise in inflation rate is not sustainable and the average inflation should remain at around 5.5 per cent for the current financial year.
Going ahead, the chamber will look forward to the continuation of softer stance of monetary policy by the RBI to spur investments and consumption demand in the coming times.

Onion continues burning pockets at Rs 150 per kg, imported supplies arrive

Retailonion prices on Friday remained higher at up to Rs 150 per kg even as the imported supplies have started arriving to boost the domestic availability and check prices.
In metros, retail price of onion was ruling at Rs 120 /kg Kolkata, at Rs 102/kg in Delhi and Mumbai and at Rs 80/kg in Chennai, as per the data maintained by the consumer affairs ministry.

In most cities, onion prices were ruling at Rs 100/kg. In Itanagar, the bulb crop was at Rs 150/kg.
"Imported onions have started arriving. About 1,160 tonne has reached India. Additional 10,560 tonne of shipments are expected to arrive in the next 3-4 days," a senior ministry official told PTI.
Both red and yellow onions have been imported from Turkey, Egypt and Afghanistan. The shipments are landing at Mumbai port, the official said.
State-owned MMTC, which is importing the key kitchen staple on behalf of the government, has contracted 49,500 tonne of onion so far. Some shipments will arrive next month.
Onion prices have shot up sharply due to estimated 25 per cent fall in kharif production of 2019-20 crop year (July-June) compared to the previous year because of late monsoon and eventual excess rains in the major producing states.
The prices have failed to cool down despite several government measures in the last few weeks. The government has already banned export of onion, imposed stock limits on traders and is also supplying buffer stock at a cheaper rate.
Traders and experts are of the view that onion prices will continue to remain firm till January when late kharif crop will start hitting the market.
The country had last imported 1,987 tonne of onion in 2015-16 when prices had shot up significantly.

Retail inflation rises to 3.99 % in September on costlier food items

Retail inflation spiked to 3.99 per cent in September mainly due to higher prices of food items, government data showed on Monday.
The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation was registered at 3.28 per cent in August. On year-on-year basis, the inflation was 3.70 per cent in the September 2018.
The price rise in the food basket was recorded at 5.11 per cent in September, as against 2.99 per cent in the preceding month, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed.
The inflation print for vegetables shot up to 15.40 per cent during the month.
However, the headline inflation still remained within the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank, which mainly factors in CPI while arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy.
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