Here's the list of outperforming stocks rising most since lockdown

Radhakishan Damani groups have outperformed the broad market substantially, clocking 26 per cent gains. Growth has been calculated on the basis of the market cap of all the listed companies of these groups as on March 23, the day before the Central government announced the nationwide lockdown, compared to what it was on Thursday.
#7 K M Birla
#7 K M Birla2 / 8

The Aditya Birla group too have beaten the average increase since the lockdown with 28 per cent gains.

#6 Shiv Nadar
#6 Shiv Nadar3 / 8

The Shiv Nadar group has seen a 30 per cent appreciation in market value.
#5 Anil Agarwal
#5 Anil Agarwal4 / 8

Anil Agarwal-controlled Vedanta Ltd, the flagship company of the group, has seen its share price spiral up as a result of its announcement this month to delist itself.
#4 Sunil Bharti Mittal
#4 Sunil Bharti Mittal5 / 8

The telecom business has bucked the trend during the lockdown, and has seen a 15 per cent increase in data usage, owing to work from home becoming the new norm. As a result, average revenue per user is moving up and is expected to hit Rs 200 in a few quarters. Bharti Airtel has leveraged this opportunity, especially after it earlier raised $3 billion through a qualified institutional placement and an overseas bond issue, and the market has cheered the stock with the group shares rising 41 per cent, coming in at fourth place.
#3 Dilip Shanghvi
#3 Dilip Shanghvi6 / 8

The rally in the pharmaceutical sector amid the Covid pandemic has helped Sun Pharma promoter Dilip Shanghvi gain a 42 per cent appreciation in stock prices.
#2 Gautam Adani
#2 Gautam Adani7 / 8

The Adani group, which saw the second-highest appreciation among business houses, has seen a sharp rise in the prices of both Adani Ports and Adani Green.
#1 Mukesh Ambani
#1 Mukesh Ambani8 / 8

Ambani is the winner by a wide margin with 78 per cent appreciation, thanks to the aggressive and successful fund-raising programme during the lockdown. Reliance Industries’ subsidiary Jio Platforms raised Rs 78,562 crore in Jio Platforms for a 17.2 per cent stake at a valuation of around Rs 4.9 trillion from marquee investors including Facebook. It is also going through a rights issue, through which it will be raising Rs 53,124 crore.

Domestic air travel, international arrivals: Check guideline details here

Domestic passenger flights are scheduled to resume from Monday, after a hiatus of two months - ever since the nationwide lockdown was announced. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has issued new guidelines for both domestic travel and international arrivals.
The Indian Railways has also listed 100 pairs of trains, like Durontos, Sampark Krantis, Jan Shatabdis and Poorva Express, that will operate from June 1.
ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE
The guidelines include installing the Aarogya Setu app on the passenger's mobile devices, mandatory thermal check-ups at the entry and exit points of all the airports, railway stations and bus terminals, and ensuring the availability of soaps and sanitizers everywhere.
International/ Domestic travel:
For international travel, before boarding, all travellers should give an undertaking that they would undergo mandatory quarantine for 14 days - 7 days paid institutional quarantine at their own cost, followed by 7 days isolation at home with self-monitoring of health. Home quarantining of passengers will be permitted for 14 days, in exceptional cases.
For domestic travel, all asymptomatic passengers will be permitted to go with the advice that they will self-monitor their health for 14 days, and inform the authorities if they develop any symptoms.
Dos and Don'ts will be provided along with tickets to the travelers by the agencies concerned.
Use of the Arogya Setu app made mandatory, while only asymptomatic travelers will be allowed to board after the thermal screening. The screening is also made mandatory at the exit points.
Everyone will have to sign a self-declaration form about his/her health, a copy of which will be given to Health and Immigration officials present at the airport/ seaport/ Iandport.
Precautionary measures such as environmental sanitation and disinfection should be carried out at the airports and the flights, all possible measures to ensure social distancing to be ensured.
Wearing of masks, environmental/ respiratory/ hand hygiene should be observed by everyone.
For domestic and international travel, passengers showing mild symptoms will be given the option of home isolation or isolated in the Covid Care Centre (both public & private facilities) as appropriate and tested as per ICMR protocol.
If tested positive, they will continue in Covid Care Centre and will be managed as per clinical protocol. If negative, the passenger may be allowed to go home, isolate him/herself and self-monitor his/her health for further 7 days.
While in home isolation, if any symptoms develop the passengers should inform the district surveillance officer or call the state/national call center at 1075.
"States can also develop their own protocol with regards to quarantine and isolation as per their assessment, in case any domestic or international traveller shows symptoms of Covid-19," the guidelines added.

Lockdown 4.0: Curbs eased to allow some movement, economic activity

The Centre has extended the nationwide lockdown by another two weeks, until May 31, to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Lockdown 4.0 comes with some relaxations to pave the way for increased movement of people and facilitate more economic activity.
In its fresh guidelines released late on Sunday, the Centre accepted the demands of several states that they be allowed to demarcate zones. Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla held a meeting with chief secretaries of the states and Union Territories (UTs) in the evening to discuss the broad contours of their respective lockdown strategies.
The latest guidelines empower the states and UTs to delineate zones based on the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) parameters.
Another change, according to the fresh MoHFW parameters issued on Sunday to chief secretaries by Union health secretary Preeti Sudan, is that states/UTs need not colour code an entire district as red, orange or green. Based on the spread of infection, they can now select even a smaller administrative unit as red, orange or green, like a sub-division, a ward or any other administration unit.
ALSO READ: Lockdown 4.0 MHA guidelines: Shopping malls, public spaces to remain shut
This could help in relaxing restrictions for starting economic activities in big urban centres across the country, including Delhi and Mumbai, where nearly all districts are currently demarcated as red. Demarcating a smaller administrative unit as red would allow rest of the district to have fewer restrictions.
chart
The Centre has tasked district authorities to demarcate ‘buffer’ and ‘containment’ zones, based on MoHFW parameters and said only essential activities would be allowed in the containment zones.
A key change is that interstate movement of passenger vehicles and buses has been allowed, but with mutual consent of states and UTs.
The new guidelines also allow for sports complexes and stadia to open but without spectators. This could pave the way for holding of sporting events such as the Indian Premier League.
The guidelines have appealed to employers to follow work-from-home as far as possible, but the earlier restriction that only 30 per cent employees can attend office has been removed. The new norms ask all employers to instruct their employees with ‘compatible phones’ to install the Aarogya Setu app. In this, the Centre has conceded that not everyone has a compatible phone.
Apart from containment zones, there is no specific restriction on e-commerce, including on non-essential items, but the final decision on this will be that of respective state governments.
The guidelines reiterated that restaurants are permitted to operate kitchens for home delivery of food items. However, the hospitality sector — hotels and restaurants — will remain shut. Air travel, Metro rail services, schools, colleges and other educational institutions will remain shut, while online education will be encouraged.
ALSO READ: E-learning to be new normal as govt plans TV channel for schoolkids
The Centre said cinema halls, shopping complexes, malls, swimming pools, gymnasia, large congregations and gatherings — including social, political, cultural, and religious — will remain banned. All religious places will also remain shut. There cannot be more than 50 guests at a wedding, and no more than 20 people at a funeral.
Elderly above 65 years of age and children below 10 should stay home. Night curfew between 7 pm to 7 am for all non-essential activities will continue.
chart
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) notified the lockdown extension in the evening. Earlier in the day, some states like Maharashtra had extended the lockdown. The first lockdown was enforced on March 25, the second on April 14, and the third on May 1.
In its notification, the NDMA directed the Centre’s national executive committee “to issue modifications in the guidelines as necessary, keeping in view the need to open up economic activities, while containing the spread of Covid-19”.

Lockdown and economy on agenda as PM Modi and CMs meet shortly

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief ministers will soon meet to discuss a plan to manage the country after May 17, when a nationwide lockdown to contain the coronavirus is scheduled to end after its second extension.
The video meeting—the fifth on the coronavirus outbreak—is set to start at 3 pm and will go on "till proceedings continue", reported NDTV.com quoting unnamed government officials. Chief ministers are likely to push for allowing economic activities to resume slowly, as the centre weighs a graded exit from the 54-day lockdown.
ALSO READ: Opportunity in crisis: 5 sectors that may gain from coronavirus pandemic
Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba chaired on Sunday a meeting with Chief Secretaries and Health Secretaries of all states and union territories to review the status of managing the disease’s outbreak. The government on Sunday allowed the Indian Railways to resume passenger trains, announcing a major relaxation in the lockdown that has shuttered economic activity in the country.
Analysts at Nomura, the international research and broking house, have lowered their GDP growth forecast for India to a negative 5 per cent / 5 per cent contraction y-o-y (from -0.5 per cent forecast earlier) for 2020, but raised it to 7.9 per cent (from 7.3 per cent forecast earlier) for 2021. Nomura has lowered India's FY21 GDP growth forecast to -5.2% vs -0.4% earlier.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: Migrant trains to run at full capacity; PM-CMs meet today
The lockdown has begun to hit corporate earnings even though economic activity was shut for only seven days during the January-March 2020 quarter (Q4FY20). The combined profit before tax of 81 early bird firms that have declared Q4 results is down 37.5 per cent year-on-year against 48 per cent y-o-y growth a year ago. The blow to bottom line was, however, cushioned by a cut in corporation tax rate cut announced in September last year. Combined net profit was down 36.8 per cent y-o-y in Q4 compared to 49.5 per cent y-o-y growth a year ago and 18.3 per cent y-o-y growth reported by the sample during Q3FY20.

Work relaxation amid lockdown fails to convince migrants to stay put

A day after the National Democratic Alliance government announced the new lockdown norms, which will kick in from May 4, a labour contractor of a construction firm in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, swung into action to ensure that work begins on schedule.
The contractor reached out to 250-300 migrant workers living in a residential colony nearby, and told them to move to the construction site of firm Iconic Shyamal, as the new guidelines announced by the Ministry of Home Affairs allowed construction activities in urban areas, provided workers stayed on the premises.
However, most workers refused as they were looking to board trains to return home, rather than go back to their workplace. This is the result of paradoxical policy decisions by the Centre, which have, on the one hand opened up transportation lines, such as buses and trains, to ferry migrant workers back to their villages, while on the other, have eased restrictions on economic activities.
“When we told the contractor that we want to go back home as train services are being resumed, he threatened us saying if we do not report to work, neither will we be allowed to reside in the contractor’s housing colony nor paid the pending wages,” 27-year-old Aehrar Alam, who hails from Bihar, said.
ALSO READ: Tamil Nadu goes easy on lockdown, allows construction work, SEZ operations
Many workers, who belong to different states such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha, residing in the same colony, told Business Standard that they wanted to return to home instead of joining work even if it comes at the cost of their livelihood.
“There is a sense of fear. The contractor got us all tested for coronavirus three times since the middle of April. He hasn’t shown us the reports yet. We want to go back home first before we decide to come back to work,” 33-year-old Aalam said.
M S Unnikrishnan, chairman of the Confederation of Indian Industry’s national committee of industrial relations, said micro, small and medium enterprises, where workers’ income levels were low, might find it difficult to retain workers in the short term. “But once they go back home and things stabilise in about three months, they will come back,” Unnikrishnan said. He added that industries will have to incentivise workers to stay back by offering safe working conditions along with taking care of basic needs.
Trade unions estimate around a million migrant workers in Gujarat. Vipul Mittra, additional chief secretary in Gujarat’s labour & employment department, said that the state planning to send them back home in a phased manner and has lined up two special trains, one that will go to Uttar Pradesh from Ahmedabad and the second will depart for Odisha from Surat.
Starting Friday, the Indian Railways has been running special train services to transport migrant workers, based on requests from states. Some states are also deploying buses to bring back workers stranded at relief camps.
And migrant workers are in no mood to stay back even if they see prospects of work resuming. Over 40 days of agony and hardship have left them with just one desire: To go home.
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The desperation to return is palpable. On Saturday, police in Indore found 18 people travelling in a concrete mixer truck. They were travelling from Maharashtra to Lucknow.
In the national capital, where about 5,000 migrant workers are residing at a camp in Karol Bagh, working for realty firm Unity Group, contractors have been calling up to check whether they want to return home or resume work.
“Most of us have told our contractor that we want to go back home. The problem is that even if work resumes, from let’s say Tuesday, we do not know if our construction site comes within the containment zone and work comes to a halt again. We do not want to live in this atmosphere of uncertainty,” Anwar, a construction worker, who belongs to Katihar district in Bihar, said.
Another worry for labourers is that the number of workers at sites will be limited. According to the latest government guidelines, factories and establishments will have to resume with 33 per cent of workforce. “Not everyone will get work,” Anwar added.
The labour contractor has noted the Aadhaar numbers and contact details of all the workers and Anwar is hopeful he will be able to go back home.
Industry bodies reckon that at a time when there is a shortage of workers to run units, reverse migration will impede the pace of economic activity. Yet, states don’t have much latitude as many workers are itching to return.
Ramesh Mohapatra, president at Utkal Chamber of Commerce & Industry (UCCI) said, “The host states of migrant workers are constrained as they have to provide accommodation and food. Moreover, many non-resident labourers are willing to go back to their native regions,” he said, adding that this had put industries in a quandary as they look to restart production.
State governments, meanwhile, have taken steps to ensure migrants get the chance to return.

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For instance, the Odisha government started a first-of-its-kind portal for registering migrant workers and has received 500,000 requests so far. Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik initiated a dialogue with his counterparts in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh to bring back workers from those states.
Other states, however, are looking at the prospect of further shortage of labour. The construction industry in Tamil Nadu has various projects pending and is on a strict deadline as works have to be completed before the monsoon arrives in the first week of June.
Sethunath M, chief executive officer at Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (CREDAI), Kerala, said the exodus of migrants will impact construction.
Similarly, in Telangana the Centre’s decision to run shramik trains has opened the flood gates for reverse migration. Till Friday, R Srinivas of Vasavi Constructions, who had a couple of projects in Hyderabad was hopeful of starting work once the lockdown is lifted.
The migrant workers he engaged had decided to stay put as he took care of them. However, things changed overnight as news of the shramik trains spread like wild fire among migrant workers. “All of them have decided to go home now,” Srinivas said.
“Even God cannot stop them from going home as they faced so much hardship, pain and suffering apart from loss of wages over the past 40 days,” said Kotam Raju, general secretary of Telangana Building Construction Workers Union
Fresh problems
For those migrants who returned home there are fresh problems that they have to cope with. According to the new guidelines, people who have completed inter-state travel through public transport have to stay under a mandatory quarantine of 14 days.
However, workers who completed the mandatory quarantine period in some states are unable to find work locally because of lack of skills and they do not want to return to cities.
“Many tea gardens have opened and people are working in shifts. However, migrant workers are unable to find any employment in these gardens. Hence, they are totally dependent on external aid,” P Nita, a non-governmental organisation worker dealing with migrant workers in north Bengal, said.
(With inputs from TE Narasimhan in Chennai, and B Dasrath Reddy in Hyderabad)

Most CMs want lockdown to continue beyond May 3: Pondy CM after meeting PM

A majority of chief ministers who interacted with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday expressed the lockdown to be continued beyond May 3 with little economic activity, PTI reported.
According to Puducherry Chief Minister V Narayanasamy, the chief ministers were unanimous in telling the prime minister that the way the virus was spreading, there needs to be a cautious approach in lifting the lockdown.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday held a video conference with chief ministers to discuss the situation arising due to coronavirus and a graded exit strategy from the lockdown in the country. The chief ministers also said that the government should evolve a policy for sending home migrant workers stranded in different states.
ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: 4 CMs seek lockdown extension; global cases cross 3 mn
"But, the prime minister did not give any solution to resolve the issue of migrants," he said at a press conference through video conference. The Puducherry CM said he and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar raised the issue of migrants.
ModiPM Modi during his interaction with state CMs. (Source: CMO Maharashtra)
Narayanasamy said the CMs demanded that the government should announce a stimulus package on lines of the UPA's 2008 package for revival of the economy. He also said the prime minister lauded Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot for taking steps to contain the virus in his state. He also mentioned the work done by chief ministers of Odisha and Bihar.
Modi conveyed to chief ministers that the country will have to give importance to the economy as well as to continue the fight against coronavirus.
In a video conference with the chief ministers, fourth such interaction since March 22 when he first spoke to them on the pandemic, Modi also highlighted the importance for states to enforce prescribed guidelines strictly in the coronavirus hotspots zones, the government said in a statement. The prime minister underlined that the lockdown has "yielded positive results as the country has managed to save thousands of lives in the past one and a half months", it said.

Coronavirus outbreak: A 21-day lockdown may have cost India Rs 8 trillion

The world’s biggest lockdown that shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of vehicles and people, may have cost the Indian economy Rs 7-8 trillion during the 21-day period, analysts and industry bodies said.
With the intent to contain the spread of Covid-19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi with effect from March 25 announced a nationwide complete lockdown that brought as much as 70 per cent of economic activity, investment, exports and discretionary consumption to a standstill. Only essential goods and services such as agriculture, mining, utility services, some financial and IT services and public services were allowed to operate.
Stating that the pandemic came at the most inopportune time for India whose economy was showing signs of recovery after bold fiscal/monetary measures, Centrum Institutional Research said the country again stares at the possibility of low single-digit growth for FY21 (April 2020 to March 2021).
ALSO READ: 25 districts in 15 states have not reported new Covid-19 cases: Govt
“Nationwide complete lockdown is likely to shave off at least Rs 7-8 trillion,” it said. Acuite Ratings & Research earlier this month estimated that the lockdown will cost the Indian economy almost $4.64 billion (over Rs 35,000 crore) every day and the entire 21-day lockdown will result in a GDP loss of almost $98 billion (about Rs 7.5 trillion).
The rapid spread of Covid-19 has not only disrupted the global economy but also triggered a partial shutdown in many parts of India from early March and an almost complete shutdown from March 25.
“While the countrywide shutdown is scheduled to be lifted from April 15, 2020, the risks of prolonged disruption in economic activities exist depending on the intensity of the outbreak,” the credit rating agency said.
ALSO READ: Coronavirus lockdown: Congress calls for financial package of 5-6% of GDP
The sectors that are most severely impacted are transport, hotel, restaurant, and real estate activities.
chartPrime Minister Modi is likely to detail the post-lockdown scenario in an address to the nation on Tuesday morning.
All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC) Secretary-General Naveen Gupta said the accumulated losses to truckers during the first 15 days of lockdown were about Rs 35,200 crore given an average Rs 2,200 loss to per truck per day.
ALSO READ: PM Modi to make it official today: Lockdown will stay with caveats
“More than 90 per cent of the about one crore trucks in the country are off roads during the lockdown as truckers with only essential commodities are on the move,” he said. “Even if the lockdown is lifted, it will take at least two-three months for truckers to limp to some normal scale as we apprehend consumption of non-essential items to remain hit on the account of lack of purchasing power.” AIMTC represents about 9.3 million transporters and truckers and is their umbrella body.
National Real Estate Development Council — a body of realtors, puts the loss in the sector at Rs 1 trillion.
“I am scared to estimate what the losses would be. I think a potential loss of maybe Rs 1 trillion on a conservative basis on an all-India basis. It is a conservative figure.
I cannot think of the upper end of the figure. Based on thumb rule, at least Rs 1 trillion,” said its president Niranjan Hiranandani.
The Confederation of All India Traders estimates that the losses incurred by the retail trade of the country in the second half of March due to the Covid-19 pandemic were a massive $30 billion.
Vegetables to be sold from 6 am to 11 am in Delhi wholesale mkts
The Delhi government will implement odd-even rules in all wholesale markets in the city, under which traders will sell vegetables on alternate days, Development Minister Gopal Rai said on Monday. Speaking to PTI, the minister said that the government has also decided to stagger the timings for the sale of vegetables and fruits in these mandis.
“Vegetables will be sold from 6 am to 11 am and fruits from 2 pm to 6 pm in all wholesale markets in Delhi,” he said. The decisions were taken at a high-level meeting chaired by the development minister here. There are five major wholesale vegetable and fruit markets in the national Capital, including the Azadpur mandi, the Ghazipur mandi, and the Okhla mandi. Also, there two wholesale anaj mandis (grain markets) — Najafgarh and Narela.

Coronavirus outbreak: A 21-day lockdown may have cost India Rs 8 trillion

The world’s biggest lockdown that shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of vehicles and people, may have cost the Indian economy Rs 7-8 trillion during the 21-day period, analysts and industry bodies said.
With the intent to contain the spread of Covid-19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi with effect from March 25 announced a nationwide complete lockdown that brought as much as 70 per cent of economic activity, investment, exports and discretionary consumption to a standstill. Only essential goods and services such as agriculture, mining, utility services, some financial and IT services and public services were allowed to operate.
Stating that the pandemic came at the most inopportune time for India whose economy was showing signs of recovery after bold fiscal/monetary measures, Centrum Institutional Research said the country again stares at the possibility of low single-digit growth for FY21 (April 2020 to March 2021).
ALSO READ: 25 districts in 15 states have not reported new Covid-19 cases: Govt
“Nationwide complete lockdown is likely to shave off at least Rs 7-8 trillion,” it said. Acuite Ratings & Research earlier this month estimated that the lockdown will cost the Indian economy almost $4.64 billion (over Rs 35,000 crore) every day and the entire 21-day lockdown will result in a GDP loss of almost $98 billion (about Rs 7.5 trillion).
The rapid spread of Covid-19 has not only disrupted the global economy but also triggered a partial shutdown in many parts of India from early March and an almost complete shutdown from March 25.
“While the countrywide shutdown is scheduled to be lifted from April 15, 2020, the risks of prolonged disruption in economic activities exist depending on the intensity of the outbreak,” the credit rating agency said.
ALSO READ: Coronavirus lockdown: Congress calls for financial package of 5-6% of GDP
The sectors that are most severely impacted are transport, hotel, restaurant, and real estate activities.
chartPrime Minister Modi is likely to detail the post-lockdown scenario in an address to the nation on Tuesday morning.
All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC) Secretary-General Naveen Gupta said the accumulated losses to truckers during the first 15 days of lockdown were about Rs 35,200 crore given an average Rs 2,200 loss to per truck per day.
ALSO READ: PM Modi to make it official today: Lockdown will stay with caveats
“More than 90 per cent of the about one crore trucks in the country are off roads during the lockdown as truckers with only essential commodities are on the move,” he said. “Even if the lockdown is lifted, it will take at least two-three months for truckers to limp to some normal scale as we apprehend consumption of non-essential items to remain hit on the account of lack of purchasing power.” AIMTC represents about 9.3 million transporters and truckers and is their umbrella body.
National Real Estate Development Council — a body of realtors, puts the loss in the sector at Rs 1 trillion.
“I am scared to estimate what the losses would be. I think a potential loss of maybe Rs 1 trillion on a conservative basis on an all-India basis. It is a conservative figure.
I cannot think of the upper end of the figure. Based on thumb rule, at least Rs 1 trillion,” said its president Niranjan Hiranandani.
The Confederation of All India Traders estimates that the losses incurred by the retail trade of the country in the second half of March due to the Covid-19 pandemic were a massive $30 billion.
Vegetables to be sold from 6 am to 11 am in Delhi wholesale mkts
The Delhi government will implement odd-even rules in all wholesale markets in the city, under which traders will sell vegetables on alternate days, Development Minister Gopal Rai said on Monday. Speaking to PTI, the minister said that the government has also decided to stagger the timings for the sale of vegetables and fruits in these mandis.
“Vegetables will be sold from 6 am to 11 am and fruits from 2 pm to 6 pm in all wholesale markets in Delhi,” he said. The decisions were taken at a high-level meeting chaired by the development minister here. There are five major wholesale vegetable and fruit markets in the national Capital, including the Azadpur mandi, the Ghazipur mandi, and the Okhla mandi. Also, there two wholesale anaj mandis (grain markets) — Najafgarh and Narela.

Lockdown extension: Put cash in hands of poor, Chidambaram tells govt

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of coronavirus would continue till May 3. He said that the fight against Covid-19 could be successful only if the citizens cooperate and maintain the discipline.
“In view of all suggestions, it has been decided that the nationwide lockdown would be extended until May 3. This means we all will have to stay indoors, in a lockdown, until May 3 — with the same discipline and resolve that we have shown so far," said PM Modi in a televised address to the nation at 10 am.
Here are some reactions from the industry.
Ashish Chauhan of Bombay Stock Exchange said exchanges will continue to function as is. No changes in the way exchanges function in the second leg of lockdown.
Former finance minister P Chidambaram said that the government needs to put cash in the hands of the poor. He said, "But beyond the lockdown, what was ‘new’ in PM’s new year message? It is obvious that livelihood for the poor — their survival — is not among the priorities of the government. CMs’ demand for money elicited no response. Not a rupee has been added to the miserly package of March 25, 2020. From Raghuram Rajan to Jean Dreze, from Prabhat Patnaik to Abhijit Banerji, their advice has fallen on deaf years. The poor have been left to fend for themselves for 21+19 days, including practically soliciting food. There is money, there is food, but the government will not release either money or food. Cry, my beloved country."
Chidambaram added that restarting the economy is important and banks need to lend.

P. Chidambaram
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@PChidambaram_IN
We reciprocate the PM’s New Year greetings. We understand the compulsion for extending the lockdown. We support the decision
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Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General of Confederation of Indian Industry said, "The coronavirus curve trajectory as of now required a fitting containment response and Prime Minister’s decision for continuation of the lockdown is necessary to avert a larger humanitarian crisis. PM's attention to ensuring that harvesting of the rabi crop continues and to taking care of distressed persons is very appropriate. PM has also provided guidance on exit from the lockdown after 20 April which helps the industry plan better. The extension gives the government adequate preparation time to organise an orderly and safe restart of the economy as and when health conditions permit. Industry too can devise its strategies for commencing operations accordingly during this extension period. CII hopes that support measures will be announced for industry, especially MSME, to tide over this crisis."
Mohandas Pai of Aarin Capital says the poor are the first priority of the nation. But the big issue of the country is retaining jobs. Banks have liquidity issues, not solvency issues. Banks need to lend to MSMEs otherwise 30-40 per cent MSMEs will die. RBI needs to be involved. RBI must make sure funds are passed on to MSMEs so that jobs can be retained. We need to look at what the US Fed has done.
He added, MSMEs, startups need cash. They need funds. GST refunds need to be released immediately for them to survive. RBI has Rs 7 trillion reserve. These are once in a lifetime situation and RBI needs to step up. RBI needs to transfer Rs 3 trillion to the government balance sheet so that the situation can be dealt with. It is government's money anyway. RBI needs to step up now like other central banks of other nations have done.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI said, the support to service sector is crucial so that banks can find it easy to lend money. A package worth Rs 6 trillion is required to rise above this storm. SBI had cut GDP growth projections to 2.6 per cent but it may go down further. However, the nominal GDP number will be more crucial and give a better picture.
Biocon chief Kiran Mazumdar Shaw said, "Important and right decision taken by PM as cases were rising, People don’t realise the importance of stopping the spread".
Keki Mistry of HDFC said the retrenchment may become a problem in some sectors going ahead. He added that it is critical to have liquidity in the system.
Dilip Chenoy, Secretary General, FICCI, said, Prime Minister's address to the Nation was very timely and appropriate. PM has also talked about the gradual calibrated opening up post 20th April in select areas where there are no coornavirus positive cases:
FICCI
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@ficci_india
Prime Minister's address to the Nation was very timely & appropriate. PM has also talked about the gradual calibrated opening up post 20th April in select areas where there are no #COVID__19 positive cases: Mr Dilip Chenoy, Secretary General, FICCI.@PIB_India @PMOIndia
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Coronavirus lockdown: Govt may start economic activity in 'green zones'

Even as the country awaited a formal announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to extend the nationwide lockdown, Telangana became the fourth state to extend it till April 30. The current phase of lockdown ends on Tuesday.
The health ministry data revealed that coronavirus (Covid-19) has claimed 273 lives in India as the number of cases climbed to 8,447 by Sunday. There were over 900 new cases, it said.
According to finance ministry sources, the PM might address the nation once the Centre shapes the contours of the plan to revive economic activity in a phased manner. The Centre is keen to restart economic activity in ‘green zones’, or areas with a low incidence of Covid-19 cases.
ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: India cases breach 9,000 mark; global tally over 1.8 mn
Some of the states showed how a less than total lockdown is likely to be enforced, with the Delhi government categorising Covid-19 areas, depending on the intensity of the spread, as red, orange, and green. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said containment zones had been declared as red and orange as high-risk. While a final plan is in the works, one suggestion is to classify areas with more than 15 cases as red, fewer than 15 orange, and no cases as green.
The government is considering a blanket approval to all forms of farming activity with proper safety measures in place, and not just specific activities within farming as has been the case.
Some of the states are also keen to start at least industries producing essential commodities.
The Uttar Pradesh (UP) government has helped reopen 5,281 industrial units during the lockdown period. These are mostly involved in manufacturing of medical supplies and essential commodities. A senior government official in the Haryana government said the state managed to retain around 50 per cent of the labour who were migrating back to their native places. However, some of the state’s industrial areas, like Gurugram and Faridabad, also fall in ‘red zone’ because of the spread of the virus, and cannot be opened right now.
Construction activity would also commence in Haryana, but only after approvals are taken by contractors for standard operating procedure (SOP) with social distancing of workforce in mind.

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Officials say most of these green zones are likely to be in rural areas, as they are less affected by the pandemic compared to the cities. Hence, top priority is to restart activity in the agriculture sector, with timely harvesting of the late rabi crop being the main concern.
For this, the biggest impediment is labour. The Centre is working with states on how to make agricultural manpower available, and whether limited transportation for such labour force can be allowed.
“There are some hotspots or ‘red zones’ where nothing can be restarted. A majority of such clusters are in urban or semi-urban areas. Based on what we are receiving from states so far, rural India is less affected than urban India. Hence, reviving farm activity is top priority,” said a senior official.
ALSO READ: Covid-19 lockdown: DPIIT flags a long list of industries that need to open
In the green zones in urban and industrial areas, the Centre is again keen to restart activity as much as possible, with strict social distancing and health norms. These details are being worked out with states and industry representative bodies. Bodies like Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry and Confederation of Indian Industry have offered their own SOPs and road map for partial resumption of activity.
On Sunday, former Congress president Rahul Gandhi cautioned against takeovers of Indian corporates. “The massive economic slowdown has weakened many Indian corporates, making them attractive targets for takeovers. The government must not allow foreign interests to take control of any Indian corporate at this time of national crisis,” he tweeted.
In Haryana, the state government has tried to retain its labour force. “In consultation with the industry, we devised ways so that the labour could be housed and given food and other essential items within the factory premises,” an official said. This was being done in all industrial areas, including Panipat and Yamunagar. The manufacturing hubs of Gurugram and Faridabad, however, would not open up anytime soon since Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar said on Friday that these areas fell under the state’s red zone.
As for harvesting, the Centre has already relaxed almost all major harvesting and sowing, repair of farm machinery, export of farm goods and also import of plant chemicals from the purview of lockdown guidelines, but even if something remains, the blanket approval will take care of that.
Most big rabi-producing states of Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, UP, and Rajasthan have staggered their procurement to enable farmers to come in batches, so that there is no overcrowding. The number of purchase centres has also been substantially high, while in UP, the state government has planned doorstep-purchase of wheat from growers.
ALSO READ: India too complex to be under long lockdown: Tata Steel's T V Narendran
Punjab has issued 2.7 million coupons to farmers for bringing wheat crop to mandis, while the number of purchase centres has also been expanded to around 3,691 in the state by involving 1,824 rice mills, against 1,840 last year to avoid overcrowding.
A farmer shall be entitled to take multiple coupons each day or on different days depending on space in the purchase centre in order to avoid rush in the mandis, the official said. Similar arrangement has also been put in place in Rajasthan. The coupons with holograms will allow farmers to bring their crop to mandis in their tractor trolleys.
To ensure social distancing at grain markets, the ground space at mandis has been divided into 30x30 feet for 50 quintals of crop, the official added. Curfew restrictions are in place in Punjab in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak.
Farmers will be required to bring minimum possible persons with tractor trolley in order to avoid gathering at grain markets.
Meanwhile, the vegetable market of Azadpur in Delhi, which is among the biggest in Asia, has introduced a system of odd-even, a sort of staggered timings — 6 am to 11 am for sale of vegetables and 2 pm to 6 pm for sale of fruits — at the mandi. The decisions were taken following reports that social distancing rules were not being followed at the mandi, which spreads over 80 acres.
“Under the odd-even rules, we will allow all the 22 sheds to operate, according to their numbers. For instance, on an even date, even-numbered sheds such as 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 will be allowed to function.
“This will help us maintain social distancing in the market in view of the Covid-19 outbreak,” Adil Ahmad Khan, chairman of the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee, Azadpur, told PTI. Odd-even rules may also be implemented at other wholesale markets of the national Capital.
In UP, the state government has proactively resolved issues pertaining to labour, passes, and transport.
Relaxing the lockdown restrictions, Kerala on April 10 notified that rubber plantation workers could set up rain guards. Besides, washing machine and other household equipment repair has been allowed on one day of the week.
In related developments, Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said the Centre had enough foodgrain for nine months of PDS supply to over 810 million beneficiaries.
Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac said the Centre should allow states to directly borrow from the Reserve Bank of India.
An Assam government order on Sunday evening allowed liquor shops, bottling plants, and breweries in the state to open for limited hours from Monday, PTI reported. The Haryana government had issued a similar order on Saturday. Its excise department had instructed district administrations to ensure operations of distilleries, bottling plants, wineries with immediate effect and full operations after lockdown is lifted. However, these will not be allowed in ‘red zones’.
Both Haryana and Assam are ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party and this could enthuse other states to start manufacturing, bottling, and sale of liquor.
Meghalaya, too, decided to allow wine shops to operate in the state from Monday owing to demand from the people, said officials.

PM hints at lockdown extension, says situation like 'social emergency'

In an effort to shape a consensus on the ongoing nationwide lockdown, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday told Parliament floor leaders that the situation in the country was akin to a “social emergency”, and indicated the curbs were likely to continue beyond April 14.
Interacting with them via videoconferencing, the PM said he would take a decision on extending the lockdown after a meeting with chief ministers on Saturday.
The number of coronavirus cases in the country crossed 5,000 on Wednesday, with 149 deaths, the data from the heath ministry said.
According to a government statement, the PM said “several state governments, district administrations, and experts had asked for an extension of the lockdown”.
Over the last week, Modi has spoken of a “staggered exit” and a “graded” lifting of the lockdown. Several state governments have also put forward their suggestions on graded lifting, including running special trains, and allowing some industrial activity.
There are concerns in several states, particularly those with bustling urban centres, like Maharashtra, that lifting the lockdown now could be counterproductive and any gains in controlling the spread might be lost. After the four-hour meeting, Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad said nearly 80 per cent of political leaders, including himself, suggested the PM that the lockdown should be extended.
ALSO READ: Can't miss peak April-June season due to coronavirus: Exporters to Centre
The Uttar Pradesh government announced that it would seal coronavirus hotspots in 15 districts across the state from Wednesday midnight till April 14. UP Additional Chief Secretary Awanish Kumar Awasthi said 104 coronavirus hotspots had been identified across 81 police station areas in these districts. A ‘complete lockdown’ would be enforced, he said.
The Delhi government also announced the sealing of 20 coronavirus hotspots comprising small pockets of settlements and apartment complexes, and made it compulsory for people to wear face masks when stepping outdoors.
At the meeting of the floor leaders, the PM said the country had been forced to take tough decisions and must remain vigilant. He said the priority of the government was saving each and every life.
“Prime Minister Modi made it clear that lockdown is not being lifted and also that the life pre-corona and post-corona will not be same," Biju Janata Dal leader Pinaki Misra said after the meeting.
ALSO READ: Govt unlikely to grant any package for industry to pay workers' salaries
The PM, however, said the impact of the emerging situation could be witnessed in resource constraints. “Yet, India has been among the few nations to control the pace of spread of the virus till now,” Modi said.
The PM, however, “warned that the situation keeps changing continuously and one needs to maintain vigil at all times”.
Modi said the country was facing serious economic challenges as a result of Covid-19, and the government was committed to overcoming them.
chartOpposition leaders flagged the issue of shortage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for health workers. Some said the government should avoid spending Rs 20,000 crore on its plan to redevelop the central vista in the national capital.
Azad said MNREGA workers should be deployed in helping farmers harvest their crop free of cost; and pesticides, fertilizers and other agriculture equipment exempted from GST.
ALSO READ: Stop private labs from charging coronavirus testing fee, SC tells govt
Azad suggested the setting up of a government task force with chief ministers of the worst-affected states as members for better coordination since they had their ears to the ground, as also a separate multi-party forum. He also suggested changing the education calendar for the year and restarting some of the factories to maintain supply of essential commodities.
Trinamool Congress’ Sudip Bandyopadhyay said Bengal had demanded Rs 25,000 crore aid, and Rs 36,000 crore that the Centre owed it. He protested diverting of MPLADS funds to the Consolidated Fund of India.
Nationalist Congress Party’s Sharad Pawar said the Tablighi Jamaat incident was unfortunate, but round-the-clock demonising of a particular sect or community needed to stop.
Meanwhile, state governments have begun acting to tackle the fallout from the lockdown and the setback to local economies.
In Madhya Pradesh, for instance, the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government constituted a four-member committee to suggest ways to handle the economic crisis.
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee indicated she was readying herself for an extension of the lockdown and said if lives could be saved, they must be saved.

Coronavirus fear: Centre defines grocery for states, eases rules for trucks

The Union government on Friday asked states to take immediate measures to ensure a free flow of essential items and keep the supply chain going. In a letter to chief secretaries of all states, Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla clarified what constituted food and grocery and the exemptions during the nationwide lockdown, while easing the norms for issuing curfew passes and truck movement to help remove the supply chain hurdles. The objective was to clear the ambiguities at the ground level, an official said.
In another letter, Bhalla reiterated that exceptions allowed for the agriculture sector must be communicated to all field agencies for smooth harvesting and sowing operations.
“At the ground level, different interpretations are being made on the items given exceptions, which hinder a smooth flow of supply chain of these essential items,’’ Bhalla said in the letter reviewed by Business Standard. Referring to queries received by the government on what constitutes food and grocery, he said, “since it is neither feasible nor desirable to mention each item of food and grocery in the guidelines, the state/union territory governments are advised to interpret these terms to mean all items of food and grocery that are usually consumed by people on day to day basis.’’
The government, has, however clarified that grocery would include hygiene products such as hand wash, soaps, disinfectants, body wash, shampoo, surface cleaners, detergents, tissue paper, toothpaste, oral care, sanitary pads, diapers, chargers and battery cells, etc. In the last one week, several companies have had to face the hurdle of making a distinction between what’s essential and what’s not.
On the difficulty faced by businesses in getting curfew passes despite production, warehousing and transport of essential goods being in the “exception’’ list , states/UTs have now been told to give out authorisation letters to companies/organisations having nationwide supply chains. This is expected to help these businesses get regional passes for easy movement of critical staff and workers to maintain their national supply chain. “The number of such authorisation should be kept to bare minimum,’’ according to the letter. Currently, companies including e-commerce firms have to follow different rules for each state and even city, making it tough to do business efficiently.
As cargo movement by railways, airports and seaports is also not easy during the lockdown period, the Centre has asked “designated authorities under railways, ports and airports to issue passes for a critical mass of staff and contractual labour’’ essential for such operations.
Addressing the issue of trucks full of essential goods being stuck on highways because of administrative issues, the Centre has clarified that “inter-state and intra-state movement of all trucks and other goods/carrier vehicles with one driver and one additional person is allowed as long as the driver is carrying a valid driver’s licence’’. Also, if the truck/vehicle is travelling empty, invoice and way-bill etc must be carried by the drivers for delivery or pick up of goods. Movement of driver and another person from the same place should also be facilitated by local authorities, the letter has said.
The list of exempted items include food, groceries, fruit, vegetable, dairy, milk products, meat, fish, seeds, fertiliser, pesticides, agriculture produce, drugs, pharmaceuticals and medical devices.

Covid-19: Let's unite in lighting lamps at 9 pm on Apr 5, PM urges nation

Addressing the nation in a video message on the ninth day of the lockdown today, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the discipline and restraint shown by the people was unprecedented. The government, administration and the public have done their best to deal with this problem, he said.
The way you greeted and appreciated the coronavirus fighters on March 22 was exemplary; everyone everywhere is trying to emulate you. You have shown to the world that an entire country can unite and fight against a crisis like this. Now that everyone is locked in at home, many would be feeling alone and wondering what they could do alone. It is true that we are at home and under a lockdown but we are not alone, he said. We, 130 billion people, are all in it together, and we must recognise this, he added.

"It is considered that citizens are akin to God in this country. From time to time we recognise the stregth of 1.3 billion people and that gives us strength in this fight against coronavirus. We have to take those who are the most affected by this crisis — the poor, the weaker sections — towards hope and light. This Sunday, April 5, we will all challenge the darkness of coronavirus and show the light of our strength. This Sunday, April 5 at 9 pm, I want your 9 minutes. 1.3 billion people of the country should switch off the lights of their homes, stand at their doors and light candles, lamps, torches or their mobile flashlights," the PM said.
"In that light on Sunday night, we will all resolve that none of us is alone. All 1.3 bn people will resolve this and draw combined strength from each other," he added.
PM Modi clarified that nobody has to break the rules of social distancing. People will not gather in groups. People should sit alone for a while, remember God and the strength of the deities, and recognise our combined strength as a nation of 1.3 billion people
Prime Minister Narendra Modi released the video message at 9 am today. This was his first video message since he announced a 21-day national lockdown on March 24. The message comes at a time when the total number of coronavirus (Covid-19) cases in the country has exceeded the 2,000 mark and more than 50 have died due to the disease.
Yesterday, the prime minister had announced this video release on his personal Twitter handle. He tweeted, "At 9 AM tomorrow morning, I’ll share a small video message with my fellow Indians."
Narendra Modi
✔
@narendramodi
At 9 AM tomorrow morning, I’ll share a small video message with my fellow Indians.
कल सुबह 9 बजे देशवासियों के साथ मैं एक वीडियो संदेश साझा करूंगा।
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5:16 PM - Apr 2, 2020
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This came after the Prime Minister held a meeting via video-conference with all the chief ministers in the country on the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdown. In the meeting he stressed on the strategy of "testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine". He also sought suggestions from states on ensuring a staggered exit from the current 21-day lockdown. He said that the Centre and states needed a common exit strategy from the lockdown.
Earlier the Prime Minister had been criticised for not consulting states before announcing the lockdown which saw large-scale exodus of migrant workers on foot.
Today's video address was the fourth address by the Prime Minister since he announced a janata curfew on March 22. He made the announcement on March 19 and appealed to people to practise social distancing and avoid public spaces. The day-long janata curfew was imposed three days later.
ALSO READ: Janata curfew, economic task force: Modi scales up coronavirus fight
The janata curfew was followed by another announcement on March 24 of a 21-day national lockdown by the prime minister. In that address, he had said that unless India’s 1.3 billion people practised social distancing, and the “chain of its spread not broken” within these 21 days, the coronavirus outbreak could push the country back by 21 years, and several families would be devastated for ever.
ALSO READ: PM Modi announces nationwide 21-day lockdown, appeals for social distancing
On March 29, Modi addressed the nation once again in his Mann Ki Baat program. In this radio address, he apologised for the 21-day nationwide lockdown having inconvenienced people, but said tough decisions were needed to “nip the disease in the bud”.

SC nod to 10-day sale of 10% of BS-IV unsold inventory post lockdown

In a relief to automobile dealers, the Supreme Court on Friday allowed the sale of BS IV compliant vehicles for 10 days, except in Delhi-NCR, after the ongoing countrywide lockdown over the coronavirus pandemic is lifted.
The apex court, which had earlier fixed the deadline of March 31, 2020 for sale of BS IV compliant vehicles across the country, passed the order on a plea by Federation of Automobile Dealers' Association (FADA), seeking extension of time for sale of inventory amid coronavirus scare and economic slowdown.

A bench of Justices Arun Mishra and Deepak Gupta, which heard the matter on Friday through video-conferencing, made it clear however that no BS IV vehicles will be allowed to be sold in Delhi-NCR from April 1, 2020.
It said that only 10 per cent of the unsold inventory of BS IV vehicles can be permitted to be sold during this 10-day period after the lockdown, which has been enforced since March 24.
Bharat Stage (BS) emission norms are standards instituted by the government to regulate output of air pollutants from motor vehicles. The BS-IV norms have been enforced across the country since April, 2017.
India has decided to switch to the world's cleanest petrol and diesel from April 1 as it leapfrogs straight to Euro-VI emission compliant fuels from Euro-IV grades now - a feat achieved in just three years and not seen in any of the large economies around the globe.
The top court made it clear that BS IV compliant vehicles which have already been sold but not registered due to lockdown can be registered after the restrictions are lifted.
It asked the automobile dealers to submit on affidavit the details of sold and unsold inventories, within one week.
While Additional Solicitor General ANS Nadkarni, appeared for the Centre through video conferencing from Goa, Senior Advocate K V Vishwanathan, appearing for FADA, linked up from his office here.
During the hearing, Vishwanathan said that the deadline needs to be extended due to the ongoing lockdown and economic slowdown faced by the country due to coronavirus pandemic.
He said that over 1.7 lakh passenger cars and 14,000 commercial vehicles amounting to Rs 7,000 crore are yet to be sold and sought time till May 31, to sell these BS IV vehicles.
The top court, however, said that it cannot keep extending time for BS IV vehicles and dealers should be ready to sacrifice and do something for the country's environment.
Nadkarni said that people might have faced hardship in registering their vehicles sold before March 31 due to the lockdown and therefore time till end of April or May, be provided.
The bench disposed of two applications filed by FADA and Honda India seeking modification of apex court's order of October 24, 2018, by which it had fixed the March 31, 2020 deadline for sale and registration of BS IV compliant vehicles.
On February 14, the top court had rejected the plea filed by an association of automobile dealers seeking extension of the March 31, 2020 deadline by one more month to sell Bharat Stage-IV norms compliant vehicles across the country.
The apex court had on October 24, 2018 said no Bharat Stage-IV vehicle would be sold or registered in India from April 1, 2020. In 2016, the Centre had announced that India would skip the BS-V norms altogether and adopt BS-VI norms by 2020.
In its October 2018 order, the top court had said that any extension of time in introducing new emission norms would adversely impact the health of citizens as the pollution has reached an "alarming and critical" level.
It had said there cannot be any compromise on the health of citizens which has to take precedence over the "greed" of a few automobile manufacturers who want to stretch the time-line to make a "little more money".
The court had passed the order in 2018 while deciding the issue of whether BS-IV compliant vehicles should be permitted to be sold in India after March 31, 2020.

Coronavirus impact: GDP likely to fall to a three-decade low, say analysts

With the nation under a lockdown because of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, analysts suggest that the impact on various Indian industries could cost the economy around 3 per cent of GDP.
There has been around 40 per cent decline in economic activity after the lockdown, as only essential manufacturing (food & pharma) and services (grocery trade, health & public services) are functioning.
This, analysts say, could shave-off 1.5 per cent from India’s projected economic growth in financial year 2020-21 (FY21).

India’s GDP growth at constant prices is now likely to be at a three-decade low of 3.5 per cent in FY21. In January, World Bank lowered India’s GDP growth to 5 per cent in FY21 from earlier estimates of 6 per cent. The calculation is based on industry or activity-based gross value added for FY20 as presented by Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Total loss in output is estimated to be around Rs 6 trillion based on estimated GDP at current prices for FY20. According to CSO, India’s GDP was expected to grow at 7.5 per cent at current prices in FY20 to Rs 204 trillion.
“The base case scenario is a minimum 30-35 per cent decline in economic activity with many estimates putting loss at around 50 per cent. Anyhow we are staring at a significant downgrade in GDP growth estimate for June 20 quarter (Q1FY21) and FY21,” says Devendra Pant head economist India Ratings.
ALSO READ: With 75% economy under lockdown, analysts see sharp fall in GDP
For example, in the manufacturing sector, output is expected to decline by about 70 per cent as only food-processing, and drugs and pharma industries are allowed to operate while other segments, such as engineering and metals, have shut operations. Food, beverages and tobacco, however, only account for 10 per cent of manufacturing output.
Machinery and equipment — which includes automobiles, consumer durables and capital goods — is the biggest component of manufacturing, and accounted for around 20 per cent of the sector in FY19, and 3.7 per cent share in overall GDP. Overall, manufacturing accounted for 16.1 per cent of country’s GDP in FY19.
“We have slashed our base-case GDP growth forecast for FY21 to 3.5 per cent from 5.2 per cent expected earlier,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL. The estimates are based on the assumption that the impact of the pandemic will subside in Q1FY21.
Economists at Nomura estimate even bigger fallout from the shutdown. “Our initial estimates suggest that 75 per cent of the economy will be shutdown, resulting in a direct output loss of 4.5 per cent,” said Sonal Verma and Aurodeep Nandi of Nomura Securities.
ALSO READ: Covid-19 crushing GDP growth, world moving towards recession: Fitch Ratings
They expect second order effect on corporate houses and banks because of the loss of jobs and livelihood from the shutdown. “There is a high risk that the livelihoods in unorganised workforce will be hit and of a sharp increase in stress in corporate and banking sectors, which is likely to further weigh on growth,” they add.
Others expect the impact of economic disruption to linger longer if loss in revenues (for corporate) and income (in case of individual) impairs balance sheets. “The 2008 Lehman Crisis suggests that any damage to balance sheet could impair companies’ financial position for years to come. It’s the same for individuals, especially those with big-ticket loans such as home or auto loans to service,” says Dhananjay Sinha, head research Systematix group.

Markets will be choppy amid 21-day lockdown; recovery to be slow, painful

The sharp fall in the Indian markets from their recent peak triggered by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic is factoring in the 21-day lockdown to an extent, but the recovery from these levels will be a slow and a painful process, say analysts. Given the developments, they expect fiscal and monetary support from the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to revive sentiment and expect the markets to remain choppy as they track the pandemic-related developments.
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“Ever since the announcement of the Janata Curfew, the market was anticipating a longer lockdown. The fall in the Nifty has more than adequately factored in the three weeks of earnings that most companies will have to forego. A big rate cut by the RBI alongside waiver of non-performing asset (NPA) norms for a period of time is all but inevitable now. The government is taking the fight against Covid-19 deep into the Indian summer with hope that the heat will ultimately eviscerate the virus. The fight has to be won before the monsoons arrive. Else, all hell could break lose,” said Saurabh Mukherjea, founder and chief investment officer (CIO) at Marcellus Investment Managers.
From the peak in January 2020, the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 have tanked around 37 per cent each, while the carnage in the mid-and small-caps has been even more brutal with both these indices slipping 36 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively during this period.

ALSO READ: Global corporate revenue to take $12 trillion hit due to coronavirus
“There is no big participation in the markets right now and I think exhaustion is creeping in now. However, a slight negative news can again trigger a fall. One needs to be careful at these levels. To some extent, the markets were anticipating a lockdown scenario given how fast the virus is spreading,” said U R Bhat, managing director at Dalton Capital.
As regards the RBI, analysts at Barclays agree with Mukherjea's view and expect the central bank to cut rates aggressively over the next few months to counter the economic slowdown and support market sentiment.
“We now see the RBI moving close to 65 basis points (bps) at its April policy meeting, and believe an additional 100 bps of cuts is needed to stabilise market sentiment between the June-August policy meetings, along with outright bond purchases through OMOs, possible forbearance for bank loans and targeted liquidity windows for banks and NBFCs,” wrote Rahul Bajoria, Chief India Economist at Barclays in a recent report.
ALSO READ: Covid-19 hit US economy already in recession: BofA; pegs job loss at 3.5 mn
Over the next few months, Edelweiss expects market to remain choppy and eye liquidity support and policy initiatives from the state governments.
“There’s plenty of monetary room, little option on the fiscal front and while India’s Covid-19 spread has been modest so far, policy has lagged. This could weigh on India’s relative economic and business damage, and eventually, the market’s recovery. Near-term market and stock calling, particularly levels, are more matters of faith and investing beliefs, than playbooks,” wrote Aditya Narain, head of research for institutional equities at Edelweiss Securities in a co-authored report with Prateek Parekh and Padmavati Udecha.
That said, most analysts agree that valuations for the Indian markets have become attractive after the precipitous fall. “The Nifty is trading at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) of 14.7x, lowest in six years while trailing P/B of 1.9x is at its lowest since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Market-cap to GDP is at 49 per cent, again lowest since the GFC,” said analysts at Motilal Oswal Securities.

Coronavirus lockdown: With no food or hope, truckers stranded across India

Twenty eight-year-old Mohammad Javed, driver of a truck carrying LPG cylinders, has been stranded at the Hubli checkpost since Tuesday afternoon without food, water or any hope. The policemen posted at the border would not allow him to cross over as the COVID-19 lockdown is to be followed stringently.
Javed is among some 500,000 drivers and helpers left high and dry across the many state borders, estimates made by the Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training (IFTRT) suggest. Trucks, even the ones carrying essential goods, are not being allowed to move following the government orders to seal the borders and check posts.
“I started from Mangalore at 4 am today and have been at the border check post of Hubli since 1 pm. The police officers stationed here are not allowing me to go ahead and they thrash me when I request them to let me go. They are not even willing to talk. I have been surviving only on water and even that is over,” he says, adding there are at least 25 to 30 trucks loaded with LPG cylinders which are marooned in that area.
ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: 'With folded hands' PM announces 21-day India lockdown
Suresh Khosla, partner at Shri Anand Transport Agency, which employs Javed, says he’s in touch with the Federation of Bombay Motor Transport Operators for the release of the trucks on an urgent basis. His company is into transporting essential bulk commodities, but it’s a challenge to continue with the business as all entry points to Maharashtra have been shut due to coronavirus, Khosla points out.

trucks, road, transport, highways, accidents
“The biggest challenge we are facing is with all the dhabas and restaurants being shut, the drivers have no option but to starve. The loading location provides food but enroute no dhabas are open,” says a person associated with the business.
With all the ancillary automobile shops being shut, vehicle repair is not possible and one cannot get the vehicles back on the road. Not surprisingly, the family members of the drivers are concerned and want them home.
Balmalkit Singh, chairman of All Indian Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC), believes the movement of goods would be severely impacted.
Meanwhile, there’s been a ripple effect with the plight of the hapless drivers stuck at the borders reaching their co-workers. They are now refusing to report to work, says Singh. “With no food or requisite infrastructure in sight, they don’t want to leave home.” The delays are also because of the confusion regarding what is essential and what’s non-essential, he adds. “Everything has come to a standstill,” he added.
“There is a large exodus of drivers from the loading points. They are rushing home. Some 250,000 to 300,000 drivers have already left for their native places after handing over the keys to their owners,” says SP Singh, senior fellow at IFTRT. All these trucks are carrying high-value items and the drivers cannot afford to leave them unattended. “We have been asking the government for a bailout package. Owners are not able to help in anyway. They (drivers) are facing a lot of hardship. Most of them are not on the payrolls of the transporters and are on minimum wages,” Singh tells Business Standard.
Following a rapid rise in the coronavirus cases and the countrywide lockdown, demand for all staples and essentials has hit the supply chain snag and manufacturers of various goods are scrambling to keep pace.

FM Sitharaman announces slew of relief measures, says bigger ones to follow

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced a slew of regulatory and compliance measures across sectors to alleviate the hardships being faced by various sectors as the country enters an unprecedented lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Sitharaman also said that a larger economic package will be announced soon.
At 8 PM in the evening, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to address the nation.

In a media briefing held through video conference, the Finance Minister said that the threshold for default under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code was increased to Rs 1 crore from Rs 1 lakh, to prevent triggering of bankruptcy proceedings for micro, small and medium enterprises, removed charges for three months for debit card holders withdrawing cash from ATMs of other banks, waived off the minimum balance fees, and extended the date for most direct tax and goods and service tax filings to June 30.
Sitharaman said that the centre was deliberating upon the suggestions from stakeholders, including a targeted income support scheme and deferment of loan payments for individuals and companies alike. She said that the Covid-19 Economic Response Task Force had been set up constituting of ministers, members of Parliament, industrialists, economists and experts, and had been divided into sub-groups dealing with various issues.
“We are close to coming out with an economic package which will be announced sooner than later,” Sitharaman said.
The minister said that the last date for income tax returns for FY2018-19 has been extended to 30 June, 2020, and for delayed payments till that time the interest rate has been reduced to 9 per cent from 12 per cent.
The mandatory linking of Aadhaar cards with PAN cards, and the direct tax Vivaad se Vishwaas scheme has also been extended to June 30. The earlier criteria in Vivaad se Vishwaas, of not paying a 10 per cent additional amount till March 31, was extended to June 30.
“For delayed payments of advanced tax, self-assessment tax, regular tax, TDS, equalization levy and other such made between 20th March 2020 and 30th June 2020, the interest rate has been reduced to 9 per cent from 12-18 per cent earlier. No late fee and penalty shall be charged for delay relating to this period,” she said.
Sitharaman also said that Those having aggregate annual turnover less than Rs 5 Crore can file GST returns for March-May 2020 by last week of June, and no interest, late fee, and penalty will be charged. For the others, a reduced interest rate of 9 per cent will be levied.
Addressing questions from reporters, the Minister remained non-committal on the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the economic growth, the centre’s tax and divestment revenues and whether the centre had estimated the size of economic losses due to the shutdown.
“There have been suggestions from people on a universal basic income, on deferring EMIs for individuals and loans for companies. We are deliberating on these issues. You will hear something soon,” she said.

Domestic flights to be suspended as India strengthens coronavirus lockdown

Domestic flights in India will stop from midnight Tuesday to March 31, as authorities strengthen a lockdown that has shuttered large parts of the country against the spread of the coronavirus.
Airlines will have to land domestic passenger flights at destinations by 11.59 pm on Tuesday, said a spokesperson for the aviation ministry on Monday, adding that the restrictions would not apply to cargo flights.
The country banned international flights for a week on March 20.
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India had 415 coronavirus cases and seven deaths until Monday noon but health experts have warned that a big jump could be imminent, which would overwhelm the underfunded and crumbling public health infrastructure.
India is planning a rescue package worth as much as $1.6 billion for the aviation sector, which has been battered after the coronavirus outbreak forced countries to close borders and brought air travel to a near-halt, Reuters reported last week.
Governments the world over are scrambling to rescue airlines that have been forced to park planes and cut jobs as the virus puts the brakes on travel. Airlines may need a bailout of more than $200 billion, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates.

RBI's coronavirus contingency plan: Keep it going from a secret location

As the country goes on a self-imposed lockdown to fight the coronavirus contagion, a crack team of 150 people, in hazmat suits, is keeping India’s financial system up and running since March 19 from an unknown location in a completely quarantined environment.
These 150 people, including 37 officials from critical departments of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), such as debt management, reserve management and monetary operations, and third-party service providers, are now in charge of the business continuity plan of the central bank, designed in a way that could help create a benchmark for such exigencies in the future as well.
The idea is to keep the RBI’s information technology (IT) infrastructure in top shape to run the payments and settlement system uninterrupted 24x7, and run the full gamut of RBI functions from the secured data centres, as nearly 14,000 RBI staffers, except the senior-most management, work from home.
The IT infrastructure operated by the RBI is necessary not just for the banking system to keep functioning, but also to ensure uninterrupted business and retail payments, as well as the continuance of government tax and other payments, said a source familiar with the arrangement.
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“These systems, operated through multiple data centres, must stay live notwithstanding any exogenous disruption,” the source said.
According to the plan, the 150 personnel are divided into two teams — one that is running the show, and the other is acting as a backup. A primary data centre has been identified, while other centres are in standby, and the central bank has hired a hotel in the vicinity of the primary data centre exclusively to accommodate these people. The support staff of the hotel (69 in all), comprising maintenance, security, kitchen, front desk, and administration, has also been isolated within the hotel.
All the 219 people, including the hotel staff, have been told not to leave the hotel. But they have been assured of leave in the case of family or other emergency. Any delivery in the hotel is being carefully monitored. Transportation is on a dedicated basis and even hazmat suits are in use while entering the data centre, sources say.

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The RBI data centres run critical systems like Structured Financial Messaging System (SFMS), RTGS, NEFT, e-Kuber (which is used for central and state government transactions, interbank transactions, market and monetary policy instruments operations, treasury operations, currency inventory and distribution management). Besides, the data centres handle the RBI website, email, and more than 35 other applications covering various functions. Around 600 personnel of a third-party service provider are generally deployed at data centres for various non-IT and IT services, besides 60 officials from the bank.
Priority has been given to the safety, health and social distancing. Other measures such as frequent sanitisation of common touch points, work space, and reduction of touch points, infrared thermal scanning for all at entry, no visitors, and awareness initiatives are being implemented.
The primary data centre is also in constant touch with the government, municipal and police authorities, hospitals, doctors, etc.
Other data centres have also been kept ready to run the systems with maximum services possible, whenever it is required, to shift the operation from the current location.
“The idea is that all critical functions of the financial system continue to be available to individuals, businesses and governments, under all circumstances,” said a source in know of the matter.