The new GDP back series data might have lowered GDP growth during the UPA era compared to the first four years of the current NDA regime, but what it hasn’t changed is the common perception that farm growth during UPA regime was better than the last four years.
The revised data shows that in the first four years of UPA-II, i.e. from 2009-10 to 2012-13, the average annual growth rate in agriculture and allied activities was around 3.9 per cent, while the average annual growth rate in the first four years of the NDA-II regime lead by Prime Minister Narendra Modi was 2.52 per cent.
Back-to-back droughts didn't help the first two years of NDA government as the farm sector was badly impacted due to its over-reliance on monsoons.
For the entire UPA era, starting 2005-06 and ending in 2013-14, the average annual farm growth according to the GDP back series data is 3.8 per cent which is again higher than first four years of NDA-II. However, these two periods aren’t strictly comparable because one considers a nine-year span and the other just four years.
The data also shows that in 2010-11, just after one of the worst droughts, India clocked perhaps one of its best growth rates in agriculture at 8.8 per cent. Even according to the old data, UPA's average annual farm growth was better than NDA's.
A jump in foodgrain productions aided by a normal monsoon might have contributed to this.
The data also shows that not only average annual farm growth was better during the UPA times, it was also more remunerative for farmers as the difference between the NDA and UPA growth rates at current prices was higher.
Though this meant higher retail prices for items of daily needs for the average consumer, it helped farmers.
Going forward, this could play a big role in the run-up to the 2019 general elections as falling farm prices and dropping rural incomes become major election issues.
The opposition will try to cash in on the superior performance of the agriculture sector during its regime and draw comparisons with the low growth during the subsequent years under NDA.
In the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan state elections, an agrarian crisis borne out by low farm prices of major crops is expected to play a big role in determining the fate of ruling BJP.
“Till a few years ago, soybean in the open market fetched us not less than Rs 4,000 per quintal ever even for the worst quality, however, since the last 2-3 years we aren’t getting paid more than Rs 3,500 a quintal for the best quality, while input cost has gone up. In such a situation, how can we make ends meet,” wondered Lakhichand Sinam, a farmer in Soni village of Mandsaur, where police firing killed agitating farmers in 2017.
Growth of Agriculture and Allies Activities in constant prices –2011-12 base (updated As Per GDP Back series data)
Year Growth
2005-06 ----------------- 4.8%
2006-07 ----------------- 2.9%
2007-08 -----------------5.15%
2008-09 ----------------(-0.2%)
2009-10 ----------------(-0.9%)
2010-11 -----------------8.8%
2011-12 -----------------6.4%
2012-13------------------1.5%
2013-14------------------5.6%
2014-15 ----------------(-0.2%)
2015-16 ----------------0.6%
2016-17 ----------------6.3%
2017-18 ---------------3.4%
SOURCE: MOSPI
The revised data shows that in the first four years of UPA-II, i.e. from 2009-10 to 2012-13, the average annual growth rate in agriculture and allied activities was around 3.9 per cent, while the average annual growth rate in the first four years of the NDA-II regime lead by Prime Minister Narendra Modi was 2.52 per cent.
Back-to-back droughts didn't help the first two years of NDA government as the farm sector was badly impacted due to its over-reliance on monsoons.
For the entire UPA era, starting 2005-06 and ending in 2013-14, the average annual farm growth according to the GDP back series data is 3.8 per cent which is again higher than first four years of NDA-II. However, these two periods aren’t strictly comparable because one considers a nine-year span and the other just four years.
The data also shows that in 2010-11, just after one of the worst droughts, India clocked perhaps one of its best growth rates in agriculture at 8.8 per cent. Even according to the old data, UPA's average annual farm growth was better than NDA's.
A jump in foodgrain productions aided by a normal monsoon might have contributed to this.
The data also shows that not only average annual farm growth was better during the UPA times, it was also more remunerative for farmers as the difference between the NDA and UPA growth rates at current prices was higher.
Though this meant higher retail prices for items of daily needs for the average consumer, it helped farmers.
Going forward, this could play a big role in the run-up to the 2019 general elections as falling farm prices and dropping rural incomes become major election issues.
The opposition will try to cash in on the superior performance of the agriculture sector during its regime and draw comparisons with the low growth during the subsequent years under NDA.
In the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan state elections, an agrarian crisis borne out by low farm prices of major crops is expected to play a big role in determining the fate of ruling BJP.
“Till a few years ago, soybean in the open market fetched us not less than Rs 4,000 per quintal ever even for the worst quality, however, since the last 2-3 years we aren’t getting paid more than Rs 3,500 a quintal for the best quality, while input cost has gone up. In such a situation, how can we make ends meet,” wondered Lakhichand Sinam, a farmer in Soni village of Mandsaur, where police firing killed agitating farmers in 2017.
Growth of Agriculture and Allies Activities in constant prices –2011-12 base (updated As Per GDP Back series data)
Year Growth
2005-06 ----------------- 4.8%
2006-07 ----------------- 2.9%
2007-08 -----------------5.15%
2008-09 ----------------(-0.2%)
2009-10 ----------------(-0.9%)
2010-11 -----------------8.8%
2011-12 -----------------6.4%
2012-13------------------1.5%
2013-14------------------5.6%
2014-15 ----------------(-0.2%)
2015-16 ----------------0.6%
2016-17 ----------------6.3%
2017-18 ---------------3.4%
SOURCE: MOSPI
No comments:
Post a Comment