The southwest monsoon will arrive on the Kerala coast on June 4, three days behind the normal date but within the normal range, private forecaster Skymet said Tuesday. In a scenario that could add to economic worries emanating from slowing rural demand and industrial production, it has maintained its earlier forecast, and expects June-seasonal rainfall to be poor this season, at 93 per cent of the normal.
The drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra would face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in June–September rains, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rainfall, Skymet said. While the model error for amount of rains is five per cent; that for date of arrival is two days.
“All four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall this season. East and northeast India and central parts will get poorer rains than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, MD at Skymet told reporters.
The initial advancement of monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What augurs ill for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have serious shortfall in rains. On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that showcase weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All forecasts of long range, however, are prone to errors due to the sheer complexity of the Indian monsoon system.
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Official forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected in a few days. The first long range forecast of the IMD has predicted a monsoon season at the lower end of normal.
While June rains are crucial for sowing in large parts of southern, western and central India, late arrival or poor June rainfall does not necessarily correlate with poor seasonal rainfall as a whole, Singh said. In the agricultural perspective, rains in July and August are the most important for crop output, which according to Skymet would most likely be below normal.
Good monsoons are associated with greater contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product, and increased rural consumption. Ratings agency Crisil has put monsoon as a key parameter along with oil prices as crucial for salvaging growth in the current financial year.
Independent weather observers concurred to some extent. They said that temperatures on the mainland have dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances that are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they said.
Mumbai-based Rajesh Kapadia, who has been observing the Indian monsoon for more than 30 years, said: “Four of the six key indicators observed in May are currently in the negative range. Formation of a sufficiently strong pressure gradient from the Indian ocean to the mainland will get delayed it seems”.
ALSO READ: Pre-monsoon rainfall records 27% dip, says IMD
Other experts said that temperatures have remained below normal in March, above normal in April and have again gone slightly below normal in Central India near May-end. This situation generally delays monsoon arrival.
The drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra would face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in June–September rains, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rainfall, Skymet said. While the model error for amount of rains is five per cent; that for date of arrival is two days.
“All four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall this season. East and northeast India and central parts will get poorer rains than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, MD at Skymet told reporters.
The initial advancement of monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What augurs ill for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have serious shortfall in rains. On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that showcase weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All forecasts of long range, however, are prone to errors due to the sheer complexity of the Indian monsoon system.
ALSO READ: Carmakers expect monsoon, festive sales to revive business in H2FY20
Official forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected in a few days. The first long range forecast of the IMD has predicted a monsoon season at the lower end of normal.
While June rains are crucial for sowing in large parts of southern, western and central India, late arrival or poor June rainfall does not necessarily correlate with poor seasonal rainfall as a whole, Singh said. In the agricultural perspective, rains in July and August are the most important for crop output, which according to Skymet would most likely be below normal.
Good monsoons are associated with greater contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product, and increased rural consumption. Ratings agency Crisil has put monsoon as a key parameter along with oil prices as crucial for salvaging growth in the current financial year.
Independent weather observers concurred to some extent. They said that temperatures on the mainland have dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances that are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they said.
Mumbai-based Rajesh Kapadia, who has been observing the Indian monsoon for more than 30 years, said: “Four of the six key indicators observed in May are currently in the negative range. Formation of a sufficiently strong pressure gradient from the Indian ocean to the mainland will get delayed it seems”.
ALSO READ: Pre-monsoon rainfall records 27% dip, says IMD
Other experts said that temperatures have remained below normal in March, above normal in April and have again gone slightly below normal in Central India near May-end. This situation generally delays monsoon arrival.
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