Monsoon to arrive late on June 4, 15% chance of drought, says Skymet

The southwest monsoon will arrive on the Kerala coast on June 4, three days behind the normal date but within the normal range, private forecaster Skymet said Tuesday. In a scenario that could add to economic worries emanating from slowing rural demand and industrial production, it has maintained its earlier forecast, and expects June-seasonal rainfall to be poor this season, at 93 per cent of the normal.
The drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra would face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in June–September rains, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rainfall, Skymet said. While the model error for amount of rains is five per cent; that for date of arrival is two days.
“All four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall this season. East and northeast India and central parts will get poorer rains than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, MD at Skymet told reporters.

The initial advancement of monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What augurs ill for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have serious shortfall in rains. On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that showcase weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All forecasts of long range, however, are prone to errors due to the sheer complexity of the Indian monsoon system.
ALSO READ: Carmakers expect monsoon, festive sales to revive business in H2FY20
Official forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected in a few days. The first long range forecast of the IMD has predicted a monsoon season at the lower end of normal.
While June rains are crucial for sowing in large parts of southern, western and central India, late arrival or poor June rainfall does not necessarily correlate with poor seasonal rainfall as a whole, Singh said. In the agricultural perspective, rains in July and August are the most important for crop output, which according to Skymet would most likely be below normal.
Good monsoons are associated with greater contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product, and increased rural consumption. Ratings agency Crisil has put monsoon as a key parameter along with oil prices as crucial for salvaging growth in the current financial year.

Independent weather observers concurred to some extent. They said that temperatures on the mainland have dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances that are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they said.
Mumbai-based Rajesh Kapadia, who has been observing the Indian monsoon for more than 30 years, said: “Four of the six key indicators observed in May are currently in the negative range. Formation of a sufficiently strong pressure gradient from the Indian ocean to the mainland will get delayed it seems”.
ALSO READ: Pre-monsoon rainfall records 27% dip, says IMD
Other experts said that temperatures have remained below normal in March, above normal in April and have again gone slightly below normal in Central India near May-end. This situation generally delays monsoon arrival.

El Nino threat is fading to India's critical monsoon season

India’s southwest monsoon, which waters more than half of the country’s farmland, is likely to be normal this year as odds of an El Nino fade, Skymet Weather Services Pvt. said on Monday.
The probability of normal showers this year is more than 50 percent, Jatin Singh, managing director of the New Delhi-based private forecaster, told reporters in a preliminary forecast. The odds of excess showers or drought are limited, he added.

Rainfall between 96 percent and 104 percent of the long-term average of about 89 centimeters (35 inches) is considered normal, Singh said, adding that rain is likely to be in the lower end of the normal range.
The monsoon is critical to the farm sector as it delivers more than 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall. When there’s too much rain, floods cause landslides and wash crops away and hundreds of people die each year. When there’s too little, families go hungry and power plants go dark. India is the world’s second-biggest producer of rice and wheat, and the top grower of cotton.
The El Nino conditions were on the rise in the Pacific Ocean till the end of December, Singh said. “The temperatures are now declining and the probability of El Nino is also falling."
El Nino, which occurs when the equatorial Pacific surface warms and touches off a reaction in the atmosphere above it, often brings dry weather to parts of Asia and Australia.