The Kairana Lok Sabha bypoll result has yet again underlined the challenge that Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine is set to face in 2019 against a united Opposition. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) loss here is seen as yet another dent in the invincibility cloak of Prime Minister Modi and party chief Shah.
With the BJP likely to struggle a repeat of its 2014 performance in much of northern India, the Kairana loss puts into sharper focus Shah’s efforts at expanding the party in areas beyond the Vindhyas and Chota Nagpur plateau, and make inroads in the Coromandel coast states.
In 2019, the BJP needs to win in the northeastern states, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana to offset its foreseeable losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, etc.
The BJP’s Kairana loss comes on the heels of its losses in recent Lok Sabha by-polls in Phulpur and Gorakhpur in eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Ajmer and Alwar in Rajasthan.
While the BJP emerged the single largest party in Karnataka, its failure to form the government jolted the confidence that its supporters had in Shah’s abilities as a ‘master strategist’. These are not good signs as Modi and Shah prepare for 2019, and the government has its work cut out for the remainder of its term.
Beyond the ‘ganna’ (sugarcane) versus (Muhammad Ali) Jinnah narrative, the Kairana loss again indicates that all isn’t well within the Uttar Pradesh BJP. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is deeply resentful of the interference of Shah’s man Friday, Sunil Bansal.
As was the case with Phulpur, Kairana has traditionally been a difficult seat for the BJP to win. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections were a rare instance of the BJP winning Kairana and Phulpur. The Kairana win in 2014 had come on the back of communal polarisation in western UP in the wake of the 2013 communal riots in neighbouring Muzaffarnagar. With the Opposition remaining divided, the BJP had consolidated its Lok Sabha wins in the region in the 2017 UP Assembly polls.
With Adityanath and Bansal not on the same page, PM Modi and Shah put their best foot forward this time to win Kairana, including the PM holding a public rally in nearby Baghpat on the eve of the poll; he reached out to sugarcane farmers.
But Kairana has followed the script written in Phulpur and Gorakhpur – a united Opposition, upset farmers, unenthused Sangh Parivar cadre and BJP’s middle-class support base not turning up to vote.
It marks the rise of the Rashtriya Lok Dal’s Jayant Chaudhary, who led his party’s campaigning for its candidate Tabassum Hasan. It could also be the first sign that the region has recovered from polarisation in the aftermath of the Muzaffarnagar communal riots that had torn asunder the social combine built by Jayant’s grandfather Chaudhary Charan Singh. Jats seem to have voted in larger numbers for Hasan.
At a press conference in New Delhi to mark four years of the Modi government on May 26, Shah had indicated that he wasn’t confident of his party winning Kairana. He said voter behaviour is different when voting in bypolls. Shah said the vote in 2019 would be Modi versus the rest.
But to expect a ‘Modi wave’ similar to 2014 looks unrealistic at the current juncture. A united Opposition, even if discredited, would ensure the pooling of anti-BJP votes in most of the crucial states that could significantly bring down BJP’s 2014 count of 282.
The results of Lok Sabha bypolls in Maharashtra also indicate that a united Opposition would be no walkover for the BJP. In Bhandara-Gondiya, the Nationalist Congress Party candidate is ahead. However, in Palghar, the BJP is ahead of the Shiv Sena, and Bahujan Vikas Aghadi is trailing at number three, though with a healthy vote share. Both these seats were won by the BJP in 2014.
With the BJP likely to struggle a repeat of its 2014 performance in much of northern India, the Kairana loss puts into sharper focus Shah’s efforts at expanding the party in areas beyond the Vindhyas and Chota Nagpur plateau, and make inroads in the Coromandel coast states.
In 2019, the BJP needs to win in the northeastern states, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana to offset its foreseeable losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, etc.
The BJP’s Kairana loss comes on the heels of its losses in recent Lok Sabha by-polls in Phulpur and Gorakhpur in eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Ajmer and Alwar in Rajasthan.
While the BJP emerged the single largest party in Karnataka, its failure to form the government jolted the confidence that its supporters had in Shah’s abilities as a ‘master strategist’. These are not good signs as Modi and Shah prepare for 2019, and the government has its work cut out for the remainder of its term.
Beyond the ‘ganna’ (sugarcane) versus (Muhammad Ali) Jinnah narrative, the Kairana loss again indicates that all isn’t well within the Uttar Pradesh BJP. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is deeply resentful of the interference of Shah’s man Friday, Sunil Bansal.
As was the case with Phulpur, Kairana has traditionally been a difficult seat for the BJP to win. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections were a rare instance of the BJP winning Kairana and Phulpur. The Kairana win in 2014 had come on the back of communal polarisation in western UP in the wake of the 2013 communal riots in neighbouring Muzaffarnagar. With the Opposition remaining divided, the BJP had consolidated its Lok Sabha wins in the region in the 2017 UP Assembly polls.
With Adityanath and Bansal not on the same page, PM Modi and Shah put their best foot forward this time to win Kairana, including the PM holding a public rally in nearby Baghpat on the eve of the poll; he reached out to sugarcane farmers.
But Kairana has followed the script written in Phulpur and Gorakhpur – a united Opposition, upset farmers, unenthused Sangh Parivar cadre and BJP’s middle-class support base not turning up to vote.
It marks the rise of the Rashtriya Lok Dal’s Jayant Chaudhary, who led his party’s campaigning for its candidate Tabassum Hasan. It could also be the first sign that the region has recovered from polarisation in the aftermath of the Muzaffarnagar communal riots that had torn asunder the social combine built by Jayant’s grandfather Chaudhary Charan Singh. Jats seem to have voted in larger numbers for Hasan.
At a press conference in New Delhi to mark four years of the Modi government on May 26, Shah had indicated that he wasn’t confident of his party winning Kairana. He said voter behaviour is different when voting in bypolls. Shah said the vote in 2019 would be Modi versus the rest.
But to expect a ‘Modi wave’ similar to 2014 looks unrealistic at the current juncture. A united Opposition, even if discredited, would ensure the pooling of anti-BJP votes in most of the crucial states that could significantly bring down BJP’s 2014 count of 282.
The results of Lok Sabha bypolls in Maharashtra also indicate that a united Opposition would be no walkover for the BJP. In Bhandara-Gondiya, the Nationalist Congress Party candidate is ahead. However, in Palghar, the BJP is ahead of the Shiv Sena, and Bahujan Vikas Aghadi is trailing at number three, though with a healthy vote share. Both these seats were won by the BJP in 2014.
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